- Latest figures indicate that over 90% of new asylum seekers in 2024 first made their application at the International Protection Office (IPO) in Dublin, rather than at a sea or airport.
- People who arrive in Ireland via boat or plane and subsequently apply for asylum do not have to make their initial application at a port, and can do so at the IPO.
- Ireland’s Department for Justice says it is their “firm assessment” that most people who make their first application at the IPO arrived in Ireland from over the land border with NI. However Minister McEntee has confirmed that the data collected at the IPO related to an applicant’s point of entry is neither extractable nor verifiable.
On 23 April in a meeting of the Oireachtas Justice Committee, Ireland’s Minister for Justice Helen McEntee told the committee that over 80% of all new asylum applicants in Ireland are arriving from over the land border with Northern Ireland.
Fianna Fáil Senator Robbie Gallagher asked the minister if she had “any idea” how many people “come through the Border with Northern Ireland to seek international protection here?”
In response to this question and a follow-up asking for a specific figure, Minister McEntee said:
“A significant proportion of people are coming through the Border now… I would say higher than 80%.”
This is not well supported by evidence – but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be true.
Based on the current publicly-available data, it is unclear exactly what proportion of new asylum seekers in Ireland first arrived in the country from over the land border with NI.
Ireland’s Department of Justice (DoJ) has clear figures for the total number of asylum applicants to Dublin’s International Protection Office (IPO) in 2024: 6,739.
It also has clear figures for how many of those people made their first asylum application at the IPO, rather than a port of entry to Ireland (such as a sea or airport): 6,136.
The issue is that people can arrive via land or sea before subsequently applying for asylum at the IPO, rather than making an immediate presentation to port authorities, so it is difficult to discern what proportion of people who first make an application at the IPO arrived in Ireland over the NI land border and what proportion arrived via plane or boat.
The DoJ told FactCheckNI (and others) that they have made a “firm assessment” about this – but the specification of that assessment has been inconsistent, has lacked specific data, and – so far – the DoJ has offered no details on their methodology. And Minister McEntee has confirmed that any such data held is unverified, and also cannot be “extracted”.
Based on the information available at this time, FactCheckNI cannot say whether Minister McEntee’s claim is accurate or inaccurate. It is, therefore, unsubstantiated.
This fact check rating could change, as and when any further information becomes available. As noted in our FAQ, FactCheckNI welcomes the submission of further evidence, post-publication, whether it validates or refutes our conclusion. Where a correction to our article is required, we will do so with transparency.
- Department of Justice statements (plural)
On Tuesday [30 April] morning, we contacted Minister McEntee asking if she had any data to support her assertion that 80% of asylum applicants arriving in Ireland do so from over the NI land border.
We received a response late that afternoon from Ireland’s Department of Justice, which said:
“The patterns in international protection applications vary over time and the Government’s response adapts accordingly.
“It has long been the case that a significant number of people apply for international protection for the first time in the International Protection Office (IPO).
“This has increased in 2024. To date in 2024, there have been 6,739 applications for International Protection at the IPO. Of these 6,136 (91%) were made at the IPO for the first time and not at a port of entry.
“There are a number of circumstances in which someone might apply in the IPO without first applying at a port of entry. They may enter at an airport with valid documentation for example but choose not to apply at that time. Or they may apply having been in the State for a period previously, for example on foot of a different permission to remain.
“However, the Department’s firm assessment, based on the experience of staff and others working in the field, and based on the material gathered at interviews, is that in most cases those applying for the first time in the IPO have entered over the land border.”
This is very similar, but not identical, to a statement quoted in the Irish Independent that was published before FactCheckNI made its own enquiries (and therefore also before we received the response from Ireland’s DoJ) – with one significant difference:
“However, the department’s firm assessment, based on the experience of staff and others working in the field, and based on the material gathered at interviews, is that over 80pc of cases of those applying for the first time in the IPO have entered over the land border. This is the department’s operational assessment of the situation.”
The relevant parts are in bold. The earlier statement asserts, based on the DoJ’s “firm assessment”, that over 80% of people whose initial application for asylum takes place at the IPO arrived over the NI land border. In its later response to us, the “firm assessment” had changed to become “most cases”, rather than 80%+.
On Wednesday [1 May], we responded to this with some follow-up questions, specifically:
“What are these assessments based on? Are they driven by data? Does the DoJ still stand over the more specific, earlier figure of 80% or has that been changed instead to “most”?”
At the time of publication, FactCheckNI has received no response.
- Arrivals and presentations
People can apply for asylum at some initial points of entry, such as sea or airports.
However, just because someone makes their initial application at the International Protection Office does not mean they cannot have arrived in Ireland by plane or boat. They may simply not have made their application immediately upon arrival.
What is missing is the proportion of people making an initial application at the IPO who did arrive over the land border.
DoJ figures state that 6,739 people have applied for asylum 2024 so far, of which 6,136 (91%) made their initial application at the IPO.
The department also says that “over 80%” – then, later, “most” – of these 6,136 applications involved cases who arrived over the land border.
This is not robust – or, at the very least, if it is robust – this has not been demonstrated publicly. Neither “over 80%” or “most” (meaning, in it the strictest terms, “over 50%”) are entirely specific. The DoJ has not yet revealed any methodology – or recorded data – to support these two separate lower-bound figures.
It is worth noting that, if precisely 80% of the 6,136 people who first applied for asylum arrived over the NI land border, that would equate to (6,136 x 0.8) = 4,909 people, or 72.8% of the 6,739 total asylum applicants in 2024. This would make the minister’s initial claim inaccurate – although, just to be clear, the DoJ’s earlier statement said the proportion was over 80% and so does not itself contradict the minister.
- Ministerial view
Minister McEntee discussed the data processes involved in response to two written questions from Aontú leader Peader Tóibín
Mr Tóibín asked both about the number of new applications being processed at the IPO and about the routes being taken by those applicants into Ireland – specifically citing the NI land border. As part of her 18 April response, Minister McEntee said:
“It must be noted that an applicant is not legally obliged to make an application for international protection at a designated port of entry. An applicant can lodge their initial application directly with the IPO after arrival in the State.
“At the International Protection Office where full applications are lodged, information provided by applicants in support of their application, including documents concerning their identity, and route travelled to Ireland are recorded as part of the applicants file, but are not stored in a manner which allows detailed data to be extracted in the manner sought by the Deputy. It is also the case that this data is provided directly by the applicants and therefore it is not possible to verify, based on the fact that there are no border checks or border infrastructure between Northern Ireland and Ireland.”
This casts doubt on the robustness of the data being used.
- Wider context
All applications for asylum in Ireland ultimately go through the IPO. In fact, advice from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHRC) states that:
“All asylum claims are made through the government body known as the International Protection Office (IPO). This government body will examine your asylum application and grant a decision. These decisions are made in accordance with the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 protocol… Once in Ireland, your asylum application should be made in person at the International Protection Office (IPO).”
The same advice does make clear that applications “may also” be made at a port – but the framing on this UNHRC advice page gives primacy to the IPO.
It is also worth looking at some historical comparisons between the number of asylum seekers who first apply at the IPO rather than at ports.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), an organisation based in Dublin which provides research for Ireland’s civil service amongst others, put relevant information in its paper Annual Report on Migration and Asylum 2022: Ireland.
Figure 1 – source: ESRI
Between 2017 and 2021 the figure for those not presenting at ports and airports varied from 47.6% to 79.5% without any clear pattern.
These are the most recent years that don’t involve any post-Brexit challenges (although 2020 and 2021, in particular, may be impacted by Covid-19), meaning they provide a before-and-after comparison for examining any shifting patterns in the wake of new border rules and operations following the UK’s exit from the European Union.
To complete the picture, data for 2022 and 2023 (as well as other years from 2019 onwards) can be seen here:
Figure 2 – source: Oireachtas
This data shows that these proportions have fluctuated significantly and without apparent pattern. Although the 2024 proportion so far (91% of total first applications take place at the IPO) is higher than any of the pre-Brexit years, it is not wildly different and, in any event, is only based on the first few months of the year.
The total number of applications in 2022 and 2023 is much higher than in preceding years (2024 is on a similar track) but the percentage of initial applications that take place at the IPO for those years (65.2% and 78.2%) are within a similar range to the preceding five years.
Altogether this suggests that, without further information or analysis, caution is advisable in drawing any conclusions from the fact that a large majority of new asylum applicants in 2024 made their initial application at the IPO rather than at ports. Any trends in the data are not clearly and immediately apparent (further analysis might reveal more) and, by the minister’s own admission, the IPO data about whether applicants arrived in Ireland via land, air or sea are imprecise and perhaps unreliable.
