Are almost one in eight of all species in NI at risk, amidst an ongoing decline in local woodland?

• Evidence from conservationist organisations suggests that 12% of all species here are at risk.
• This research relies on some estimates, as not every single species worldwide is tracked and assessed for its vulnerability, while IUCN Regional Red List criteria considers the island of Ireland as one single area – meaning findings about NI have to be deduced from that.
• Although NI has not developed as much certified woodland as the rest of the UK, the overall woodland area has remained static and NOT declined.

On 9 April in a debate in the Assembly, Alliance Party MLA John Blair claimed:

“…12% of our species are being threatened with extinction and the area of certified woodland has continued to decrease despite increasing in England.”

The MLA said he took these figures from the most recent RSPB State of Nature report.

That report provides evidence for the first part of the claim – namely that 12% of all species (animals, plants and fungi) in NI are at risk of extinction – based on work by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

However, the report does NOT say that the area of certified woodland here has decreased. Instead, it has remained largely unchanged for over a decade – although it has been increasing elsewhere in the UK.

• Red List

The RSPB State of Nature 2023 report states that 12% of all species in Northern Ireland are threatened.

“Threatened” in this case refers to the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Theatened Species, which is described as having “…[e]volved to become the world’s most comprehensive information source on the global extinction risk status of animal, fungus and plant species.”

Referring to the IUCN Regional Red List, the RSPB report states:

“In Northern Ireland, 281 (12%) of 2,508 species assessed are threatened with extinction from the island of Ireland.”

However, the RSPB report notes that no IUCN Red List assessment has been conducted in Northern Ireland specifically, instead only considering the island of Ireland as a whole. The RSPB has deduced a summarised Red List assessment for the region, by only including species known to have occurred in Northern Ireland. The report acknowledges that:

“[T]his approach represents our best estimate of Extinction Risk in Northern Ireland; however, it is imperfect, as the population status of species may differ in Northern Ireland compared to the island as a whole”

It should also be borne in mind that the IUCN Red List does not include an assessment of every single species in an area – including, as above, around 2,500 species in NI – but rather a sample of all species. Nevertheless, this remains the best-available evidence for measuring the proportion of at-risk species.

Overall, taking these caveats into account, Mr Blair’s claim that 12% of our species are being threatened with extinction is supported by evidence. 

• Woodland

Mr Blair also claimed that the area of “certified woodland” has continued to decline in Northern Ireland.

What is forest certification?

The Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) describes forest certification as: “a marker to provide the consumer with an assurance that products have been sourced from sustainable (well managed) woodlands and forests”.

This assurance is based on an assessment of forest and woodland areas by independent auditors to determine whether they are being managed to recognised standards. Certification requires forestry practices to be audited against an agreed standard. The UK Woodland Assurance Standard (UKWAS) provides a common standard for use within forest certification programmes operating in the UK.

In the RSPB report, “certified woodland” refers to that woodland which is certified as “sustainably managed”. The report states that:

“While tree cover in Northern Ireland has been steadily increasing for more than a century, much of the expansion has consisted of plantation conifer and in the same period, there has been a continued loss of woodland biodiversity.”

When contacted by FactCheckNI, Mr Blair pointed FactCheckNI to page 54 of the report, which states: 

“The area of certified woodland has increased in Britain since 2004, but not in Northern Ireland”. 

However, a lack of growth does not mean there has been a decline. Data shows that the area of certified woodland in NI has remained static for years (with, in fact, a small increase in the most recent data).

In a recent research report by Forest Research (which the RSPB references), the area of certified woodland for the past decade is said to be:

It is fair to say that, compared with broader trends across the UK, Northern Ireland’s apparent lack of development and expansion of certified woodland is an outlier:

Figure 2 – source: Forest Research

FactCheckNI also contacted DAERA to ask about certified forestry in NI. A spokesperson said:

“The latest National Statistics released by Forest Research Agency on 15 June 2023, indicate that area of certified woodland in Northern Ireland, remained generally consistent between 1998 and 2023 and is currently 66,000 ha.  Details can be found at the following link. No significant changes are expected in the area of certified woodland to March 2024.”
Although NI might be falling behind other parts of the UK in terms of woodland development, the claim that certified woodland in Northern Ireland has decreased is inaccurate.