{"id":3598,"date":"2019-12-06T07:30:26","date_gmt":"2019-12-06T07:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=3598"},"modified":"2022-03-23T14:04:52","modified_gmt":"2022-03-23T14:04:52","slug":"is-there-51-support-for-ireland-unity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/europe\/is-there-51-support-for-ireland-unity\/","title":{"rendered":"Is there 51% support for Ireland unity?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This claim is accurate. Although the Sinn Fein manifesto didn’t declare the exclusion of “don’t knows”, this revises a 45\/46\/9 split to a rounded 49\/51 split between staying in the UK and leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

UPDATE: A previous version of this article applied a survey from Ashcroft Polls from May\/June 2018. This updated version uses a more recent Ashcroft Poll from September 2019. The result is a change of conclusion from INACCURATE to ACCURATE.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their 2019 Westminster election manifesto<\/a>, Sinn F\u00e9in claimed the following in section, \u201cLooking to the Future\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t

In a recent opinion poll in the north carried out on behalf of the Tory peer, Lord Ashcroft a majority of those polled said that if there was a referendum on Irish unity tomorrow, they would vote in favour of unity.<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Lord Ashcroft published the following graphic on Twitter, which shows 51% response \u201cfor Northern Ireland to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland\u201d and 49% response \u201cfor Northern Ireland to stay in the UK\u201d. The graphic includes a statement that \u201cfigures shown exclude those who answered \u2018don\u2019t know\u2019 or \u2018would not vote\u2019\u201d. This qualifying statement was not published in the Sinn Fein manifesto<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Source: https:\/\/twitter.com\/LordAshcroft\/status\/1171694711700119557<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Lord Ashcroft Polls<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The figures are cited from a survey<\/a> by Lord Ashcroft, where 1,542 adults in Northern Ireland were interviewed online between 30 Aug and 2 Sept 2019. Results were weighted to be representative of all adults in Northern Ireland.
One of the survey questions was, \u201cIf there were a \u2018border poll\u2019 tomorrow, how would you vote?\u201d The responses are shown in the following table:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Option<\/b><\/td>Response<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
For Northern Ireland to stay in the UK<\/span><\/td>45%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
For Northern Ireland to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland<\/span><\/td>46%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Don\u2019t know<\/span><\/td>9%<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Excluding “Don’t knows”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Firstly, it is incomplete to quote a percentage for a smaller number of options without acknowledging that fewer options are being taken into account than were captured in the poll or survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, excluding the “don’t knows” enables one to say “for those who expressed a preference”,  49.45% chose the option “for Northern Ireland to stay in the UK” and 50.55% chose the option “… join the Republic of Ireland”. Rounding up these figures to the nearest per cent results in a 49\/51% split between staying or leaving the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other polls<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The online blog, Northern Slant<\/a>, published an article that reviewed a previous Ashcroft survey as well as three others that asked people their voting intention in a referendum on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland: \u201cWhat do the latest polls tell us about Northern Ireland\u2019s future?\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The four surveys were:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Queen\u2019s University Belfast<\/a> (polling by Ipsos-MORI)<\/li>
  2. BBC<\/a> (polling by LucidTalk)<\/li>
  3. Northern Ireland Life and Times survey<\/a><\/li>
  4. Lord Ashcroft Polling<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The results are summarised in the following graphic, which includes \u201cundecided\/don\u2019t know\u201d respondents:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/a>
    Source: https:\/\/www.northernslant.com\/what-do-the-latest-polls-tell-us-about-northern-irelands-future\/<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    The more recent Ashcroft Poll survey (September 2019) is significant in that it shows a majority support for the option for “united Ireland”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In its manifesto for the 2019 General Election, Sinn Fein made a statement and published a graphic that claimed there was 51% support for Northern Ireland to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland, without declaring that there were “don’t know” responses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    An analysis of the cited Ashcroft Poll (September 2019) shows a 45\/46\/9 split between staying in the UK, leaving the UK, and “don’t knows”. Excluding the “don’t knows” results in a rounded 49\/51 split between staying in the UK and leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Image: Photo<\/a> by Chris Dorney<\/a> used by license Dreamstime.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    FactCheckNI is Northern Ireland\u2019s first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and a verified signatory<\/a> to the International Fact-Checking Network\u2019s Code of Principles<\/a>. You can learn more about about FactCheckNI<\/a>, our personnel<\/a>, what our article verdicts<\/a> mean, and how to submit a claim<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    This claim is accurate. Although the Sinn Fein manifesto didn’t declare the exclusion of “don’t knows”, this revises a 45\/46\/9 split to a rounded 49\/51 split between staying in the UK and leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland. UPDATE: A previous version of this article applied a survey from Ashcroft Polls from…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21465,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,29,33],"tags":[45,123,278],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs there 51% support for Ireland unity? - FactCheckNI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/europe\/is-there-51-support-for-ireland-unity\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is there 51% support for Ireland unity? - FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This claim is accurate. Although the Sinn Fein manifesto didn’t declare the exclusion of “don’t knows”, this revises a 45\/46\/9 split to a rounded 49\/51 split between staying in the UK and leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland. 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