{"id":3051,"date":"2019-08-27T10:33:58","date_gmt":"2019-08-27T10:33:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=3051"},"modified":"2022-03-02T10:34:23","modified_gmt":"2022-03-02T10:34:23","slug":"do-40-of-unionists-support-a-potential-irish-sea-trade-border","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/economy\/do-40-of-unionists-support-a-potential-irish-sea-trade-border\/","title":{"rendered":"Do 40% of Unionists support a potential Irish Sea trade border?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>This claim is inaccurate. 15% of unionists in a LucidTalk poll in August 2019 said there should be a &#8220;Northern Ireland specific backstop.&#8221; 81% of those declaring as unionists said there should not.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-65x43.jpg 65w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-150x100.jpg 150w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-75x50.jpg 75w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-60x40.jpg 60w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In an opinion <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2019\/aug\/22\/brexit-northern-ireland-border\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">article<\/a> published in The Guardian under the headline, \u201cBoris Johnson should call the DUP\u2019s bluff and create a border in the Irish Sea\u201d, Simon Jenkins claimed: \u201cEven within the Unionist community, 40% are happy about a border down the Irish Sea.\u201d Jenkins cited polls by the Northern Ireland-based company, LucidTalk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>LucidTalk responded with a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LucidTalk\/status\/1164498058161328129?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">tweet<\/a>, stating that the figure is \u201cactually only 15%\u201d. The polling company also made reference to one of its polls in another <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LucidTalk\/status\/1164498058161328129?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">tweet<\/a>, with a pie chart illustration that showed the responses, by percentage, from self-described Unionists (people voting for DUP, UUP, and other Unionist parties) to the question, \u201cIf a referendum took place in NI tomorrow with the question \u2013 \u2018Should there be a NI specific Backstop as part of Brexit?\u2019 \u2013 which way would you vote?\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>15.0%: As part of Brexit, there should be a Northern Ireland-only \u2018Backstop\u2019 with Northern Ireland more closely aligned with the EU than the rest of the UK<\/li><li>81.0%: As part of Brexit, there should not be a Northern Ireland-only \u2018Backstop\u2019 and Northern Ireland should leave the EU on exactly the same terms as the rest of the UK<\/li><li>4.0%: Not sure\/Don\u2019t know, but would probably vote<\/li><li>0.0%: Uncertain<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-1024x717.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20270\" width=\"840\" height=\"588\" srcset=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-1024x717.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-300x210.jpg 300w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-768x538.jpg 768w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-1536x1076.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-65x46.jpg 65w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-150x105.jpg 150w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-71x50.jpg 71w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01-57x40.jpg 57w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-01.jpg 1745w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.wixstatic.com\/ugd\/024943_e4d0cc4eed464f9fb1ac15934775a68e.pdf#page=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">LucidTalk<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Jenkins linked to an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetimes.co.uk\/article\/ni-voters-want-eu-border-in-irish-sea-c0gb552sc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">article<\/a> (\u00a3) in the Sunday Times to underpin his statistics. The Sunday Times article was based on LucidTalk&#8217;s Tracker poll from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lucidtalk.co.uk\/single-post\/2019\/08\/20\/LT-NI-Opinion-Panel-Quarterly-Tracker-Poll-\u2013-August-2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 2019<\/a>, and stated &#8220;[A]lmost three out of five voters in Northern Ireland are in favour of a \u201cborder in the Irish Sea.\u201d It also noted that &#8220;one in six unionists support the Northern Ireland-only backstop.&#8221; In both cases there is a slight rounding up of the numbers. To be precise, 58.4% of the overall population and 15% of unionists favour a NI specific backstop. Nonetheless, the Sunday Times figures are close to the mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lucidtalk.co.uk\/single-post\/2019\/08\/20\/LT-NI-Opinion-Panel-Quarterly-Tracker-Poll-%E2%80%93-August-2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">latest<\/a> LucidTalk tracker poll was conducted between 9th-12th August 2019 and was sent to their panel of 12,762 members &#8220;which is balanced by gender, age group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI).&#8221; 2,302 responses were received. LucidTalk explain that the &#8220;data was weighted by age, sex, socio-economic group, previous voting patterns (i.e. election turnout estimation), constituency, constitutional position, party support and religious affiliation\u201d which resulted in &#8220;1,252 full responses [being] used for analysis in terms of the final results\u201d. They go on to say that all &#8220;data results produced are accurate to a margin of error of +\/-2.6%, at 95% confidence\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What is a &#8220;border in the Irish Sea&#8221;?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A \u201cborder in the Irish Sea\u201d is not a legal term within the Brexit negotiations. However, it has become shorthand for the concept that Northern Ireland should retain a closer relationship with the European Union than Britain does, in the context of Brexit. This has become known as the \u201cbackstop\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk\/explainers\/northern-ireland-backstop\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Institute of Government<\/a> provide more detail and a timeline for the evolution of the backstop. They state:<br>\u201cIn February 2018, the European Commission <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/publications\/draft-withdrawal-agreement-withdrawal-united-kingdom-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-european-union-and-european-atomic-energy-community_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">published a draft Withdrawal Agreement<\/a> which, to deliver the backstop, proposed keeping Northern Ireland within the EU customs territory and \u2018common regulatory area\u2019 covering goods and sanitary and phytosanitary regulations. This approach, a \u2018Northern Ireland specific\u2019 backstop, would require customs and regulatory checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland if it ever came into force.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Responding to concerns that this would entail Northern Ireland being treated differently to the rest of the UK, then Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU agreed a further <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk\/explainers\/draft-brexit-withdrawal-agreement-november\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">draft Withdrawal Agreement<\/a> in November 2018. This contained a <a href=\"https:\/\/europa.eu\/rapid\/press-release_MEMO-18-6423_en.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joint Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland<\/a>, which included a provision that there would be no regulatory barriers in the Irish sea. This essentially widened the backstop to include all of the UK in a de facto \u201csingle customs territory\u201d with the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of the backstop is, in the words of <a href=\"https:\/\/fullfact.org\/europe\/irish-backstop\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Full Fact<\/a>, &#8220;an insurance policy&#8221; to ensure that the Irish border remains open, regardless of what happens in future negotiations between the UK and the EU. The draft Withdrawal Agreement did not envisage the backstop kicking in until after an agreed transition period, and only then if negotiations broke down and no alternative arrangements had been agreed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the time of writing, the Withdrawal Agreement has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.parliament.uk\/business\/news\/2019\/march\/key-brexit-vote-as-meaningful-vote-returns-to-the-commons\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">defeated<\/a> in the UK Parliament three times. July 2019 saw a new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, enter office. Johnson does <a href=\"https:\/\/ukandeu.ac.uk\/boris-johnson-and-the-irish-backstop\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">not approve<\/a> of the backstop and has accelerated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/collections\/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">preparations<\/a> for a &#8216;No Deal&#8217; Brexit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Implementation of a Northern Ireland specific backstop would entail some checks on goods entering Northern Ireland ports from Britain, while preventing checks at the Irish border. This has led to the emergence of the term, \u201cborder in the Irish Sea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Where does the 40% come from?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the LucidTalk August 2019 poll, the words &#8220;border in the Irish sea&#8221; were not used, but \u201ca NI only \u2018Backstop\u2019\u201d were. As explained above, we interpret Jenkin\u2019s \u201cborder down the Irish Sea\u201d as meaning reference to \u201ca NI only \u2018Backstop\u2019\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we separate the results by political party, there are some variations in unionist support. 27% of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) would vote for a NI specific backstop, as would 14% of \u201cOther PUL (Protestant\/Loyalist\/Unionist)\u201d parties. Only 5% of Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) voters said they would support this policy. The UUP and Other PUL figures are quoted in the Sunday Times <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetimes.co.uk\/article\/ni-voters-want-eu-border-in-irish-sea-c0gb552sc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">article<\/a>: \u201c&#8230; 27% of Ulster Unionist supporters and 14% who voted for other unionists or loyalist candidates were in favour of compromise\u201d. These two figures add up to 41%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the poll results by political party are relevant only for each party. For example, for all UUP respondents: 27% supported a backstop, 69% did not, and 4% were uncertain. For \u201cOther PLU\u201d respondents: 14% supported a backstop, 80% do not, and 6% were uncertain. As can be seen in the following table, these add up to 100% for each party, but this does not mean that 41% represent unionist (or Unionist parties) support for a backstop. This is because of the different number of responses received from self-ascribed DUP, UUP, and Other PUL voters; there were more DUP than UUP than Other PUL respondents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-02-2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/FactCheckNI-078-Unionist-Irish-Sea-LucidTalk-02-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3055\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.wixstatic.com\/ugd\/024943_e4d0cc4eed464f9fb1ac15934775a68e.pdf#page=7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">LucidTalk<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Jenkins\u2019 claim may thus be based on a misreading of political party responses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another explanation for the 40% figure could be that Jenkins may have heard the previously <a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/facts\/are-60-against-the-backstop-in-northern-ireland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fact-checked analysis<\/a> that \u201c60% of Unionist people are opposed to the Backstop on economic grounds&#8221;, and extrapolated that 40% of unionists must therefore support it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have attempted to contact Mr Jenkins to clarify the source of the data or his process in arriving at this figure, but to date have received no reply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet however the cause, the claim that 40% of unionists support a Northern Ireland specific backstop, and are therefore \u201chappy about a border down the Irish sea\u201d, is inaccurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simon Jenkins wrote an article in the Guardian claiming that 40% of unionists supported a border in the Irish sea.<br>The data appears to refer to LucidTalk&#8217;s August 2019 Tracker poll, co-commissioned by The Sunday Times, which asked if people in Northern Ireland would vote for a Northern Ireland specific backstop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The number of people who expressed a preference for a unionist political party who said they would vote for such a backstop in this poll was 15%, while 81% were opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The claim may be based on a misinterpretation of data in this or other polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The claim is inaccurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Image: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dreamstime.com\/dublin-ireland-june-irish-ferry-ship-beautiful-summer-day-ireland-june-irish-ferry-ship-image102577734\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Photo<\/a> by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dreamstime.com\/bloodua_info\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sergii FIGURNYI<\/a> used by license <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dreamstime.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dreamstime.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>FactCheckNI is Northern Ireland\u2019s first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and a <a href=\"https:\/\/ifcncodeofprinciples.poynter.org\/profile\/factcheckni\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">verified signatory<\/a> to the International Fact-Checking Network&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.poynter.org\/ifcn-fact-checkers-code-of-principles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Code of Principles<\/a>. You can learn more about <a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/about\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">about FactCheckNI<\/a>, our <a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/about\/personnel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">personnel<\/a>, what our article <a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/blog\/for-your-consideration-factcheckni-verdict-ratings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">verdicts<\/a> mean, and how to <a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/claims\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">submit a claim<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This claim is inaccurate. 15% of unionists in a LucidTalk poll in August 2019 said there should be a &#8220;Northern Ireland specific backstop.&#8221; 81% of those declaring as unionists said there should not. In an opinion article published in The Guardian under the headline, \u201cBoris Johnson should call the DUP\u2019s bluff and create a border&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21476,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,29],"tags":[45,123,140],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Do 40% of Unionists support a potential Irish Sea trade border? - FactCheckNI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/economy\/do-40-of-unionists-support-a-potential-irish-sea-trade-border\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Do 40% of Unionists support a potential Irish Sea trade border? - FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This claim is inaccurate. 15% of unionists in a LucidTalk poll in August 2019 said there should be a &#8220;Northern Ireland specific backstop.&#8221; 81% of those declaring as unionists said there should not. 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