{"id":2954,"date":"2019-07-19T16:38:21","date_gmt":"2019-07-19T16:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=2954"},"modified":"2022-03-02T12:46:07","modified_gmt":"2022-03-02T12:46:07","slug":"96-population-growth-by-those-aged-65","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/96-population-growth-by-those-aged-65\/","title":{"rendered":"96% population growth by those aged 65+?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This claim is accurate. NISRA has published a projection of an increased population of 77,587 people; the 65+ age profile will see the largest change.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

On 12 June 2019, the BBC programme, Spend it Like Stormont<\/a>, stated: \u201cBetween 2016 and 2026, the population here [Northern Ireland] is projected to grow by more than 77,000 — 96% of which will be 65 and over.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is the overall population of Northern Ireland projected to grow by more than 77,000 by 2026?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the ten-year period from mid-2016 to mid-2026, Northern Ireland\u2019s population is projected to rise by 4.2% (i.e. 77,600 people), reaching 1,939,700 people in 2026, as stated in a report<\/a> by the Northern Ireland Statistical Research Agency (NISRA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will 96% of this population growth be within the 65+ age profile?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Ian Shuttleworth<\/a>, senior lecturer in population geography at Queen’s University, declared that we were experiencing \u201ca second demographic transition\u201d almost a century after the first. He explained that an ageing population and declining birth rate was a common trend emerging throughout the developed world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to understand the projected population figures, FactCheckNI refers to the following findings. With a projected Total Fertility Rate of 2.0 by 2024<\/a>, there is a projected increase of 0.1% number of children<\/a> among the overall Northern Ireland population. The projected increase in the demographic of children (aged 0-15) is low, at 600 people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, there is a projected tailing off of 2,500 people in the demographic of 16-64 year olds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, with more people alive today living beyond age 65, that age segment of the population increases the most, from 16.0% in 2016 to 19.2% in 2026. This is illustrated in the following graphic by NISRA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image source: Northern Ireland Statistical Research Agency<\/a> (NISRA).<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the growth in the population of Northern Ireland of those aged 0-64 is low (3,085 people) and those aged 65+ is high (74,502 people). Those aged 65+ represent 96% of total projected growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it can be confusing to express projected total growth in percentage terms of an age bracket. Another perspective is to examine the percentage change within these age segments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a projected 0.2% increase in the number of people aged 0-64 (from 1,564,382 to 1,567,467) and a 25.0% increase in the number of people aged 65+ (from 297,755 to 372,257).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These figures<\/a> are displayed in the table below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/td>2016<\/b><\/td>2026 (projected)<\/b><\/td>Change<\/b><\/td>Total Growth Change (%)<\/b><\/td>Age Segment Change (%)<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
Aged 0-15<\/b><\/td>388,001<\/td>388,574<\/td>573<\/td>0.74%<\/td>0.15%<\/td><\/tr>
Aged 16-64<\/b><\/td>1,176,381<\/td>1,178,893<\/td>2,512<\/td>3.24%<\/td>0.21%<\/td><\/tr>
Aged 65+<\/b><\/td>297,755<\/td>372,257<\/td>74,502<\/td>96.02%<\/td>25.02%<\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/b><\/td>1,862,137<\/b><\/td>1,939,724<\/b><\/td>77,587<\/b><\/td>100%<\/b><\/td> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The following chart visualises the very small change in demographic of children and 16-64 year olds, and the much more significant increase in over 65s:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data from the NISRA show that over the 10-year period from mid-2016 to mid-2026, Northern Ireland\u2019s population is projected to rise by 4.2% (i.e. 77,600 people); 96% of this growth will be represented by those aged 65 and over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The age distribution of those aged 65+ in Northern Ireland is projected to increase from 16.0% (2016) to 19.2% (2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, the population of those aged 65+ is projected to increase by 25%, from 297,755 to 372,257.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claim that those aged 65+ will represent 96% of projected growth is accurate. However, it is worth noting the percentage changes within age segments. Age distribution figures can provide the clearest demographic picture of all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Image: Photo<\/a> by Photographerlondon<\/a> used by license Dreamstime.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

FactCheckNI is Northern Ireland\u2019s first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and a verified signatory<\/a> to the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles<\/a>. You can learn more about about FactCheckNI<\/a>, our personnel<\/a>, what our article verdicts<\/a> mean, and how to submit a claim<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This claim is accurate. NISRA has published a projection of an increased population of 77,587 people; the 65+ age profile will see the largest change. On 12 June 2019, the BBC programme, Spend it Like Stormont, stated: \u201cBetween 2016 and 2026, the population here [Northern Ireland] is projected to grow by more than 77,000 —…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[74],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n96% population growth by those aged 65+? - FactCheckNI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/96-population-growth-by-those-aged-65\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"96% population growth by those aged 65+? - FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This claim is accurate. NISRA has published a projection of an increased population of 77,587 people; the 65+ age profile will see the largest change. 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