{"id":2543,"date":"2019-03-06T10:18:49","date_gmt":"2019-03-06T10:18:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=2543"},"modified":"2022-02-27T23:07:43","modified_gmt":"2022-02-27T23:07:43","slug":"communal-counting-the-northern-ireland-census","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/articles\/explainers\/communal-counting-the-northern-ireland-census\/","title":{"rendered":"Communal counting: The Northern Ireland census"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In Northern Ireland, much data are reduced to communal categories of \u201cProtestant\u201d and \u201cCatholic\u201d, for the purposes of monitoring the delivery of public services and compliance with discrimination legislation. These two religious denominations are also used as proxy for British unionist and Irish nationalist identities. For some, a Protestant-majority population provides assurance of continuation of the Union with Great Britain; for others, a Catholic-majority population means a call for a referendum for a united Ireland. Thus the decennial exercise of the Northern Ireland population census has an added sensitivity and importance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

This article seeks to explain the data collection by the Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency and some of their methods in calculating \u201cProtestants\u201d and \u201cCatholics\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/td>Presbyterian, Church of Ireland, Methodist<\/b><\/td>Protestant and Other Christian (including [non-Catholic] Christian-related denominations)<\/b><\/td>Belonged to or were brought up in Protestant, Other Christian or [non-Catholic] Christian-related denominations<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
1981<\/b><\/td>45.9%<\/td>–<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
1991<\/b><\/td>42.8%<\/td>–<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
2001<\/b><\/td>39.5%<\/td>45.6%<\/td>53.1%<\/td><\/tr>
2011<\/b><\/td>35.8%<\/td>41.6%<\/td>48.4%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A Protestant minority since 2011?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The year 2011<\/a> \u201cwas the first time the Protestant population was not the majority in the history of the region\u201d, according to the fifth Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report, published in October 2018. This statement has also been quoted in a recent UNESCO report called Northern Ireland Returning to Violence<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third Peace Monitoring Report from 2014<\/a> examined data from the 2011 census in Northern Ireland and found that \u201cthe headline result was the narrowing of the gap between Catholics (45.1 per cent) and Protestants (48.4 per cent)\u201d. The 45%\/48% figure has been widely shared by media outlets: BBC<\/a>, Belfast Telegraph [1<\/a>] [2<\/a>], Irish Times<\/a>, iNews<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The press release<\/a> for the 2011 Census explained that \u201cthe prevalence rates for the main religions were: Catholic (41 per cent); Presbyterian (19 per cent); Church of Ireland (14 per cent); Methodist (3.0 per cent)\u201d. However, right underneath, it also said that \u201cbringing together the information on Religion and Religion Brought up in, 45 per cent of the population were either Catholic or brought up as Catholic, while 48 per cent belonged to or were brought up in Protestant, Other Christian or Christian-related denominations\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does this \u201cinformation on Religion and Religion Brought up in\u201d contain, and was 2011 really the first time the majority of the population of Northern Ireland was not Protestant?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belonging to a religion in Northern Ireland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every ten years a census survey is held in Northern Ireland. Among the questions posed is one asking to \u201cwhat religion, religious denomination or body\u201d you belong. The answers to this question are variables<\/a> that \u201cclassify a person by the Religion they consider themselves to belong to, or if the person does not belong to a religion, they could select ‘no religion’\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image source: https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/sites\/nisra.gov.uk\/files\/publications\/background-to-the-religion-and-religion-brought-up-in-questions-in-the-census-and-their-analysis-in-2001-and-2011.pdf<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Three of the given answers to this question are Protestant churches: \u201cPresbyterian Church in Ireland\u201d, \u201cChurch of Ireland\u201d, and \u201cMethodist Church in Ireland\u201d. Together they represented 35.8% (19.03%, 13.74%, and 3% respectively) of the population in 2011<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three main Protestant churches have represented less than 50% of the population since 1981<\/a>, when 45.9% of the population responded that it belonged to one of these three Christian denominations. (The 1981 Census, however, was conducted in difficult circumstances<\/a>, and a campaign of non-cooperation was held in some areas which, according to NISRA<\/a>, \u201cresulted in a lower than expected figure for those stating \u2018Catholic\u2019 and a higher than expected figure for \u2018Not stated\u2019\u201d). Ten years later, the percentage of these three Christian denominations declined to 42.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belonging to a religion in Great Britain and Ireland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its proposal document<\/a> for the 2011 Census, NISRA notes that \u201cthe formats of the religion questions proposed in the rest of the UK are different, reflecting local requirements and populations\u201d, but \u201cthey are sufficiently comparable for the purposes of providing broad UK statistics\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The religion question in Scotland<\/a> provides three options for the Christian religion: \u201cChurch of Scotland\u201d, \u201cRoman Catholic\u201d, and \u201cOther Christian\u201d. In England<\/a> and Wales<\/a>, there is one category: \u201cChristians (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations)\u201d. The given answers in Ireland<\/a> contained four Christian options: \u201cRoman Catholic\u201d, \u201cChurch of Ireland\u201d, \u201cPresbyterian\u201d, and \u201cOrthodox\u201d. People could also write down other Christian-related denominations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table: All respondents, religion belonging, by country, 2011 Census:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/td>Christian<\/b><\/td>Muslim<\/b><\/td>Other<\/b><\/td>No Religion<\/b><\/td>Not Stated<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
Northern Ireland<\/b><\/td>82.3%<\/td>0.2%<\/td>0.6%<\/td>10.1%<\/td>6.8%<\/td><\/tr>
Scotland<\/b><\/a><\/td>53.8%<\/td>1.4%<\/td>1.1%<\/td>36.7%<\/td>7%<\/td><\/tr>
England & Wales<\/b><\/a><\/td>59.3%<\/td>4.8%<\/td>3.6%<\/td>25.1%<\/td>7.2%<\/td><\/tr>
Ireland<\/b><\/a><\/td>90.5%<\/td>1.1%<\/td>0.9%<\/td>5.9%<\/td>1.6%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Table: Respondents belonging to Christian religion, denomination by country, 2011 Census:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/td>Roman Catholic<\/b><\/td>Presbyterian (Ireland)<\/b><\/td>Church of Scotland<\/b><\/td>Church of Ireland<\/b><\/td>Other Christian<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
Northern Ireland<\/b><\/td>40.8%<\/td>19.1%<\/td>–<\/td>13.7%<\/td>8.8%<\/td><\/tr>
Scotland<\/b><\/td>15.9%<\/td>–<\/td>32.4%<\/td>–<\/td>5.5%<\/td><\/tr>
Ireland<\/b><\/td>84.2%<\/td>0.5%<\/td>–<\/td>2.8%<\/td>3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(Figures for England & Wales are not applicable; religion denomination not asked.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Catholics, Protestants, and others in Northern Ireland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To compare figures for Catholics and Protestants, all Protestant denominations have to be included to obtain a single category of Protestants. As seen above, the survey leaves open the option to write in your religion, if you belong to another denomination than the given answers. A full list of all religions answered to the 2011 religion question can be founded here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2001<\/a>, the analysis of the religion question codes all responses into four categories:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. \u201cCatholic\u201d<\/li>
  2. \u201cProtestant and other Christian\u201d<\/li>
  3. \u201cOther religions and philosophies\u201d<\/li>
  4. \u201cNo religion or not stated\u201d<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Catholic<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cCatholic<\/a>\u201d (1) adds up \u201cRoman Catholic\u201d with the written answers \u201cCatholic Apostolic Church\u201d, \u201cUkrainian Catholic\u201d, \u201cGreek Catholic\u201d, and \u201cCatholic\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Other Christian\/Other religions<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Other responses were categorised as \u201cOther Christian (including Christian-related)\u201d (2) or \u201cOther Religions and Philosophies\u201d (3), which was done \u201con the basis of the best available information<\/a>\u201d. The former category includes Protestant religions such as \u201cPentecostal\u201d and \u201cFree Presbyterian\u201d, as well as other Christian religions as \u201cChurch of England\u201d or \u201cJehovah\u2019s Witness\u201d. The most indicated other religions were \u201cBaptist\u201d (1% of total population) and \u201cChristian\u201d (0.8%) (see Religion – Full Detail: QS218NI<\/a>). NISRA acknowledges<\/a> \u201cthat the categorisation of some of the smaller religions is open to interpretation\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    All other stated religions, such as \u201cMuslim\u201d or \u201cHindu\u201d, were included into the category \u201cOther Religions and Philosophies\u201d (3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Before 2001, the \u201cProtestant and Other Christian\u201d category did not exist. Religions, apart from the four main churches, were not broken up into two separate groups (\u201cOther Christian\u201d and \u201cOther religions\u201d), but were instead brought together into the group \u201cOther denominations<\/a>\u201d. However, this latter group later got added with the three main Protestant churches, to provide comparisons<\/a> over years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    Image source: https:\/\/www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk\/public\/census2011analysis\/religion\/index.aspx<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    The percentage of \u201cProtestant and other Christian\u201d went down from 45.6% in 2001<\/a> to 41.6% in 2011<\/a>. Meanwhile, the percentage of \u201cCatholics\u201d remained stable. NISRA<\/a> notes \u201cthis can be partly explained by an increase in the proportion of people who either had no religion or no stated religion (from 14 per cent to 17 per cent) and the more than doubling of the prevalence rate for Other religions (from 0.3 per cent to 0.8 per cent)\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    No religion or not stated<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Those who indicated they were \u201cAtheist<\/a>\u201d, \u201cJedi Knight\u201d, and others were included in the \u201cNo religion or not stated\u201d (4) category, along with people who gave no response to the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Catholics, Protestants, and others in Great Britain and Ireland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In Scotland<\/a>, the category \u201cOther Christian\u201d is also shown in the census results. However, there was no coding of write-in answers<\/a>. These answers \u201cwere coded to \u2018Other Christian\u2019 and \u2018Another religion\u2019 solely on the basis of which box was used\u201d, since two separate write-in boxes<\/a> for \u201cOther Christian\u201d and \u201cAnother religion\u201d were provided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Furthermore, the category was not taken together with \u201cChurch of Scotland\u201d into one category of \u201cProtestant and other Christian\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In a report by Central Statistics Office<\/a>, which compares the 2011 census results of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the category \u201cProtestant and Other Christian\u201d was also created for Ireland; 6.3% of the Irish population belonged to that category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For the England and Wales census, there are no subcategories of the \u201cChristian\u201d response option.
    Religion brought up in, in Northern Ireland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A 1999 White Paper<\/a> brought up an additional question about religion to be included in the 2001 census: \u201cA question on religion has traditionally been included in the census in Northern Ireland, where the information is used to help in the monitoring of policies on equality issues. The question will be similar to that asked in the 1991 Census, but in addition, respondents who indicate \u2018no religion\u2019 will be asked to record the religion in which they were brought up (if any)\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    Image source: https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/sites\/nisra.gov.uk\/files\/publications\/background-to-the-religion-and-religion-brought-up-in-questions-in-the-census-and-their-analysis-in-2001-and-2011.pdf<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    In the methodology<\/a> document of the 2001 census, it is stated that \u201cthe resultant community background data are of use in informing employment and other equality monitoring\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The new question is only meant for those who stated they belonged to no religion and those who did not answer the \u201cbelonging to\u201d question. Responses to the additional question are coded into the same four categories as ascribed above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Census Act (Northern Ireland) 1969<\/a> indicates that those who do not complete the question about religion \u201cshall not be subject to any penalty for refusing to do so\u201d. Accordingly, and unlike other questions, the percentage of the population who did not state a religion is given in the results. Normally, missing responses are imputed<\/a> using standard statistical procedures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the UK, the Canadian Census Edit and Imputation System<\/a> is used for imputation. It is a system developed by Statistics Canada, based on the \u201cNearest-neighbour Imputation Methodology\u201d. It identifies a set of \u201cnearest neighbours\u201d as similar as possible to each non-respondent, not just for individuals, but for an entire household.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    These nearest neighbours serve as donors for missing answers.
    Imputation is applied to the additional question (\u201creligion brought up in\u201d), meaning the percentage of non-respondents disappears in the adjusted results.     44%<\/a> of those who self-categorised as \u201cNo religion or not stated\u201d, or 7.5% of the whole population, did not give a response to this question. But by using the same statistical imputation as with other questions, 55,345 non-respondents<\/a> were added to \u201cCatholic\u201d and 59,835 to \u201cProtestant and other Christian\u201d as their religion being brought up in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The answers to the additional question are then included into the main religion question. This means the four coded categories got adjusted into:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. \u201cBelonging to or brought up as Catholic\u201d<\/li>
    2. \u201cBelonging to or brought up in Protestant or other Christian denominations\u201d<\/li>
    3. \u201cBelonging to or brought up in other religions or philosophies\u201d<\/li>
    4. \u201cBelonging to or brought up in no religion\u201d<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      In the 2011 Census, 123,162 persons<\/a> who responded to the original religion belonging question with \u201cNo religion or not stated\u201d were added to the new \u201cBelonging to or brought up in Protestant and Other Christian denominations (including Christian related)\u201d category, and 79,352 such persons to the \u201cBelonging to or brought up Catholic\u201d category. People \u201cbelonging to or brought up in no religion\u201d, are those who answered \u201cNone\u201d to both the main and the additional question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The table below summarises the changes resulting from the additional question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

       <\/td>Religion<\/b><\/td>Religion brought up in (No religion or not stated)<\/b><\/td>Religion or religion brought up in<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
      Protestant and other Christian<\/b><\/td>41.6%<\/td>+6.8%<\/td>48.4%<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
      Catholic<\/b><\/td>40.8%<\/td>+4.4%<\/td>45.1%<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
      Other religions and philosophies<\/b><\/td>0.8%<\/td>+0.1%<\/td>0.9%<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
      No religion<\/b><\/td>10.1%<\/td>-4.5%<\/td>5.6%<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
      Not stated<\/b><\/td>6.8%<\/td>-6.8%<\/td>–<\/b><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      At 48.4%, it is true that 2011 was the first time that this category of \u201cBelonging to or brought up in Protestant and Other Christian denominations\u201d represented less than half of the Northern Ireland population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Religion brought up in, in Great Britain and Ireland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The question asking for the religious background of non-respondents and non-religious people is specific<\/a> for Northern Ireland. A similar additional question is not asked in England and Wales, nor in Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In Scotland, the \u201cbrought up in\u201d question was asked in the 2001 census, in addition to a \u201cbelonging to\u201d question. It differed from the Northern Ireland census in that the \u201cbrought up in\u201d question had to be answered by everyone (i.e. not exclusively by non-respondents or non-religious people). Consequently, the responses were coded independently of the \u201cbelonging to\u201d question. 9.7% of people who in 2001<\/a> belonged to<\/em> a Christian religion did not state the same religion for where they were brought up in<\/em>. Likewise, 41.6% of people who stated they belonged to<\/em> no religion stated a different response to what they were brought up in<\/em>. In 2011, the \u201cbrought up in\u201d question was dropped<\/a> from the Scotland Census, due to \u201climited user demand\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The percentage of the population that is considered \u201cProtestant\u201d depends on the definition being used. Seen as belonging to any of the three main Protestant churches, less than 50% of the population has been Protestant since 1981. Adding people who belong to other Christian-related denominations, there has been a Protestant minority since 2001. Including non-religious people and non-respondents who were brought up in Protestant or other Christian denominations, less than half of the population has been Protestant since 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In addition to a religion belonging question, Northern Ireland is unique in the British Isles for asking a further religious background question. For those who answered the census question as belonging to no religion, or did not answer that question at all, \u201creligion brought up in\u201d is imputed using a nearest neighbour method. This produces data that other statutory agencies find useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In any case, the adjusted combined figures (6.5%) of those who responded \u201cNo religion\u201d (5.6%) and \u201cOther religion and philosophies\u201d (0.9%) is greater than the spread between the adjusted figures of \u201cProtestant\u201d (48.4%) and \u201cCatholics\u201d (45.1%). Protestants are just one of several minorities in Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Cover image showing relative populations between Protestants (red) and Catholics (blue); source: Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report<\/a>, Number Five, October 2018.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n

      FactCheckNI is Northern Ireland\u2019s first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and a verified signatory<\/a> to the International Fact-Checking Network\u2019s Code of Principles<\/a>. You can learn more about about FactCheckNI<\/a>, our personnel<\/a>, what our article verdicts<\/a> mean, and how to submit a claim<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      In Northern Ireland, much data are reduced to communal categories of \u201cProtestant\u201d and \u201cCatholic\u201d, for the purposes of monitoring the delivery of public services and compliance with discrimination legislation. These two religious denominations are also used as proxy for British unionist and Irish nationalist identities. For some, a Protestant-majority population provides assurance of continuation of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20741,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,33],"tags":[146,81,149,88],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCommunal counting: The Northern Ireland census - FactCheckNI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/articles\/explainers\/communal-counting-the-northern-ireland-census\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Communal counting: The Northern Ireland census - FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In Northern Ireland, much data are reduced to communal categories of \u201cProtestant\u201d and \u201cCatholic\u201d, for the purposes of monitoring the delivery of public services and compliance with discrimination legislation. 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