{"id":2506,"date":"2019-02-15T09:18:44","date_gmt":"2019-02-15T09:18:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=2506"},"modified":"2022-03-23T14:09:53","modified_gmt":"2022-03-23T14:09:53","slug":"are-60-against-the-backstop-in-northern-ireland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/europe\/are-60-against-the-backstop-in-northern-ireland\/","title":{"rendered":"Are 60% against “The Backstop” in Northern Ireland?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
This claim is inaccurate. 35% of all those polled in a LucidTalk poll responded that they would oppose some sort of special status for Northern Ireland; 60% of Unionists polled were opposed to one option of special status, because \u201cit would be bad for the NI economy\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n On 12 February 2019, Jim Shannon MP<\/a> stated<\/a> the following in the House of Commons:<\/p>\n\n\n We contacted Mr Shannon to learn which national opinion poll he referred to, but have not received a response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is \u201cThe Backstop\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The trading relationship between the UK and Ireland is an important consideration in the negotiation between the UK and EU, in regards to the UK leaving the EU as a member state. This has a focus on the land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. A \u201cbackstop\u201d provision has been included in the draft Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The BBC has provided a outline<\/a> of the issues concerning \u201cThe Backstop\u201d. The Irish border Brexit backstop (or \u201cThe Backstop\u201d) concerns both the UK and EU\u2019s commitment to avoiding the return of what could be considered a “hard border” — physical checks or infrastructure — after Brexit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The backstop is a position of last resort to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland in the event that the UK leaves the EU without securing what the BBC term \u201can all-encompassing deal\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The LucidTalk poll<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A regular opinion poll is carried out in Northern Ireland by the company, LucidTalk, which describes<\/a> its \u201cNI Tracker Poll\u201d as taking place \u201cevery 3 months to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc.\u201d. It outlines the methodology employed to ensure a representative sample of the Northern Ireland population in the following terms, for a poll it carried out between 30 November and 3 December 2018:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (11,227 members) which is balanced by gender, age group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 1,334 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, and a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine \u2018one-person, one-vote\u2019 responses, and also to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This 1,334 responses dataset was\/is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland — producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +\/-3%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Where does 60% come from?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In interrogating this claim, the only relevant and detailed opinion poll that we are aware of was one conducted by LucidTalk<\/a> that was published in December 2018. The relevant \u201cbackstop\u201d polling question is Question 4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOne proposal for Brexit that avoids any hard border in Ireland, is for Northern Ireland to remain closely tied to the EU, inside the single market and the customs union, while Britain has a more arms-length arrangement. Which of these comes closest to your view of this idea?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The results of which are outlined in the following table:<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n For all respondents and those who identified as \u201cUnionists\u201d, the results to the question were:<\/p>\n\n\n\nA recent national opinion poll in Northern Ireland showed that 60% of those polled were clearly against the backstop\u2014a majority of opinion \u2026 Will the Prime Minister give an assurance to Unionists in Northern Ireland that there can be no progress unless the backstop is removed or is time-limited?<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n\n