{"id":17291,"date":"2021-11-16T12:00:25","date_gmt":"2021-11-16T12:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=17291"},"modified":"2022-04-05T12:41:17","modified_gmt":"2022-04-05T12:41:17","slug":"are-75-of-non-voters-in-northern-ireland-pro-union","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/elections\/are-75-of-non-voters-in-northern-ireland-pro-union\/","title":{"rendered":"Are 75% of non-voters in Northern Ireland pro-Union?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This claim is accurate with consideration. <\/b>The claim that three-quarters of non-voters in Northern Ireland are pro-Union is based on evidence from a research survey commissioned on behalf of the University of Liverpool. It found that 76.9% of respondents who did not vote in the 2019 General election and who stated a constitutional preference chose \u201cto remain part of the UK\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, only 31.1% of those non-voters expressed a preference about whether NI should remain part of the UK or reunify with the rest of Ireland. The remaining 68.9% of respondents who were non voters either had no preference or kept it to themselves.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UPDATE: This article was updated on 16 November 2021 (without changing the conclusion) and again on 5 April 2022 (reclassifying the claim from ACCURATE to ACCURATE WITH CONSIDERATION). Further details at the bottom of the article.<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During an episode of BBC Northern Ireland\u2019s Spotlight programme, Professor Peter Shirlow claimed (at 24:55<\/a>): \u201cThree-quarters of people who don\u2019t vote in Northern Ireland are pro-Union.\u201d This claim was made in the context of a discussion on the new leaders of two Unionist parties, the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How do we know the views of non-voters?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shirlow confirmed with FactCheckNI that this figure came from a Northern Ireland General Election Survey (2019)<\/a> that was commissioned by Professor Jon Tonge of the University of Liverpool (UL), at which Shirlow<\/a> is the director of the Institute of Irish Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The survey, conducted by Social Market Research (SMR), is based on a representative sample of electors aged 18 and over in Northern Ireland. In total, 2,003 electors were interviewed, spanning all 18 parliamentary constituencies in Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The figure relevant to this claim is found in a table<\/a> in the survey report: \u201cTo Remain in UK or to reunify with Ireland by Voters and Non-Voters who state a preference\u201d. The table states that almost a third (31.1%) of all respondents who are non-voters gave a preference to one of the two constitutional choices. Of these non-voters in the survey, 76.9% chose the response, \u201cTo remain part of the UK\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>

Voters<\/b> <\/span><\/p><\/td>

Non-voters<\/b><\/p><\/td>

Share of those who stated a constitutional preference who did not vote<\/b><\/p><\/td><\/tr>

To remain part of the UK<\/td>

70.5%<\/p><\/td>

29.5%<\/p><\/td>

76.9%<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

To reunify with the rest of Ireland<\/td>

83.0% <\/span><\/p><\/td>

16.9% <\/span><\/p><\/td>

23.0%<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

Share of all respondents<\/td>

67.5% <\/span><\/p><\/td>

31.1% <\/span><\/p><\/td>

31.1%<\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This figure also appears elsewhere in the survey report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How many non-voters in Northern Ireland?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the UL survey, 31.1% of all respondents were identified as non-voters (they responded \u201cno\u201d when asked if they voted in the 2019 General election). This compares with election turnout figures which show that 37.9% of the eligible electorate did not vote in the 2019 General Election<\/a> (i.e., 480,192 non-voters).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Survey framing matters<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion surveys regularly exclude certain responses from people who have answered (or are determined to have indicated) that they did not previously vote previously. There is often a preference to learn the views of people \u201clikely to vote\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The debate about whether the views of non-voters should be recorded and analysed is beyond the scope of this fact check. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UL-commissioned survey is one survey that reports the constitutional preferences of non-voters. On its own and based on its research methodology, the reporting of responses can be viewed as accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Updates to this article<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n