{"id":17171,"date":"2021-05-27T10:20:14","date_gmt":"2021-05-27T10:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=17171"},"modified":"2022-03-02T09:37:53","modified_gmt":"2022-03-02T09:37:53","slug":"is-public-spending-in-northern-ireland-45-higher-than-in-ireland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/economy\/is-public-spending-in-northern-ireland-45-higher-than-in-ireland\/","title":{"rendered":"Is public spending in Northern Ireland 45% higher than in Ireland?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Using public expenditure as a measure of public spending, total public expenditure per person in Northern Ireland in 2015\u201316 was 10% higher than in Ireland. More recently, it was near par with Ireland. As a part of national output (GDP), government consumption contributed an estimated 45% more, per person, in Northern Ireland than it did in Ireland. But government consumption excludes aspects of spending, like investment in roads and social welfare.<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Pile of loose UK money with banknotes and coins alongside a simple calculator with blank readout on white viewed high angle<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UPDATE: This article has been amended to take into account <\/b>updated figures<\/b><\/a> from the Office for National Statistics, which suggest that public expenditure per person in Northern Ireland was near par with Ireland in 2019\u201320.<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool has produced two videos<\/a> as part of its Civic Space initiative, one which presents pro-Union arguments and another which presents pro-unity arguments. This fact check investigates a claim in the original version of the pro-Union video, which stated<\/a>, \u201cpublic spending in Northern Ireland is 45% higher than in Ireland\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FactCheckNI contacted Liverpool University, which clarified that the statement is meant to be \u201c45% higher per person<\/i>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The source of information in the original 45% claim is an academic paper published in March 2020 by the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland<\/a>: \u201cThe Northern Ireland Economy: Problems and Prospects<\/a>\u201d, written by Professors John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth. In a section comparing the standard of living<\/a> in Northern Ireland with that of the UK as a whole and Ireland, it states, \u201cFunded by the transfer from central government, public [government] consumption per head in Northern Ireland was 45% higher than in Ireland.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is \u201cgovernment consumption\u201d?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consumption data \u2014 what individuals, businesses, and government spend \u2014 is used to calculate a Gross Domestic Product (GDP)<\/a> or other measures of total economic output of an area. Government consumption<\/i> includes government spending on employing people to provide services (for example, the work of civil servants, police officers, healthcare workers), but it excludes the transfer of money to people (such as welfare or pension payments) as well as government investment in capital projects (like roads and buildings).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We spoke with Professor FitzGerald, who confirmed that in their paper they were arguing that the percentage of government consumption that makes up Northern Ireland\u2019s GDP is 45% greater, per person, than government consumption in Ireland that makes up Ireland\u2019s GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total public expenditure<\/i>, on the other hand, is the amount of money spent on the delivery of all public services, including the transfers of money (subsidies) and capital expenditure. Public expenditure is a clearer and more comprehensive measure to explore this claim regarding public spending, rather than government consumption, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are public expenditure figures for Northern Ireland and Ireland?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To compare public expenditure between states, we need to look at the data that governments submit to Eurostat<\/a>, the statistical office of the European Union. Because each state may calculate its national figures slightly differently, Eurostat audits the figures to a common standard (European System of Accounts<\/a>). This makes the states\u2019 figures more reliably comparable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some UK public expenditure benefits people in Northern Ireland generally and not specifically as a region \u2014 for example, spending for defence and diplomatic services. Because of this, for this article we used figures for \u201ctotal managed expenditure<\/a>\u201d (TME), which is greater than \u201ctotal identifiable expenditure\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the UK, the annual figures published by HM Treasury<\/a> are close to the figures published by Eurostat<\/a>. This suggests that the figures published by the Office for National Statistics for public expenditure (TME) in Northern Ireland<\/a> are sufficiently accurate, which we can then compare with the standardised Eurostat figures for Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using population estimates (Ireland<\/a>, UK<\/a>, Northern Ireland<\/a> (Table 17<\/a>)) and implied exchange rates (from the Eurostat figures<\/a>), our analysis is that public expenditure per person in Northern Ireland in 2016\u201317 (for comparison with the academic paper) was \u00a314,495; in Ireland, it was an estimated \u00a313,264. Per person, total public expenditure in Northern Ireland was about 10% higher than in Ireland, in 2016\u201317.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Label<\/b><\/td>2016-17<\/b><\/td>2017-18<\/b><\/td>2018-19<\/b><\/td>2019-20<\/b><\/td><\/tr>
COFOG Total General Government Expenditure<\/b><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
Ireland (Eurostat)<\/td>76,500,500,000\u20ac<\/td>78,929,300,000\u20ac<\/td>83,786,600,000\u20ac<\/td>87,285,000,000\u20ac<\/td><\/tr>
UK (Eurostat)<\/td>1,010,949,600,000\u20ac<\/td>973,616,100,000\u20ac<\/td>993,978,800,000\u20ac<\/td>1,036,139,300,000\u20ac<\/td><\/tr>
UK (Eurostat)<\/td>\u00a3828,453,000,000<\/td>\u00a3853,540,000,000<\/td>\u00a3879,383,000,000<\/td>\u00a3909,492,800,000<\/td><\/tr>
Northern Ireland (ONS)<\/td>\u00a327,513,000,000<\/td>\u00a328,065,000,000<\/td>\u00a328,868,000,000<\/td>\u00a330,118,000,000<\/td><\/tr>
Exchange Rate (\u20ac\/\u00a3)<\/td>1.22<\/td>1.14<\/td>1.13<\/td>1.14<\/td><\/tr>
Population<\/b><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
Ireland (Eurostat)<\/td>4,726,286<\/td>4,784,383<\/td>4,830,392<\/td>4,904,240<\/td><\/tr>
UK (Eurostat)<\/td>65,379,044<\/td>65,844,142<\/td>66,273,576<\/td>66,647,112<\/td><\/tr>
Northern Ireland (ONS)<\/td>1,862,137<\/td>1,870,834<\/td>1,881,641<\/td>1,893,667<\/td><\/tr>
Expenditure Per Head (\u00a3)<\/b><\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
Ireland<\/td>\u00a313,264<\/td>\u00a314,463<\/td>\u00a315,346<\/td>\u00a315,622<\/td><\/tr>
UK<\/td>\u00a312,672<\/td>\u00a312,963<\/td>\u00a313,269<\/td>\u00a313,646<\/td><\/tr>
Northern Ireland<\/td>\u00a314,775<\/td>\u00a315,001<\/td>\u00a315,342<\/td>\u00a315,905<\/td><\/tr>
NI\/IRL ratio<\/b><\/td>111.39%<\/strong><\/td>103.72%<\/strong><\/td>99.97%<\/strong><\/td>101.81%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For 2019\u201320, the most recent data available for Northern Ireland, our analysis is that public expenditure per person in Northern Ireland was \u00a315,905; in Ireland, it was an estimated \u00a315,346. Per person, total public expenditure in Northern Ireland was 2% higher than in Ireland in 2019\u201320.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These figures do not take into account the purchasing power of the amount of expenditure, as different places will have higher or lower costs of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since FactCheckNI started investigating this claim, the video<\/a> (at 2:04) has been updated to state that \u201cpublic spending in Northern Ireland is 15% higher than in Ireland\u201d. The new source for this revised claim could be an earlier working paper<\/a> by Professors John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth, which states<\/a> \u201c… the transfer to Northern Ireland has been fairly constant at around 20% of GDP since the Belfast Agreement, having averaged under 15% of GDP between 1980 and 1999.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This revised claim is still at odds with the public expenditure figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Article originally published on 16 April 2021.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

FactCheckNI is Northern Ireland\u2019s first and only dedicated independent fact-checking service and a verified signatory<\/a> to the International Fact-Checking Network\u2019s Code of Principles<\/a>. You can learn more about about FactCheckNI<\/a>, our personnel<\/a>, what our article verdicts<\/a> mean, and how to submit a claim<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Using public expenditure as a measure of public spending, total public expenditure per person in Northern Ireland in 2015\u201316 was 10% higher than in Ireland. More recently, it was near par with Ireland. As a part of national output (GDP), government consumption contributed an estimated 45% more, per person, in Northern Ireland than it did…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[271],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs public spending in Northern Ireland 45% higher than in Ireland? - FactCheckNI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/economy\/is-public-spending-in-northern-ireland-45-higher-than-in-ireland\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is public spending in Northern Ireland 45% higher than in Ireland? - FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Using public expenditure as a measure of public spending, total public expenditure per person in Northern Ireland in 2015\u201316 was 10% higher than in Ireland. 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More recently, it was near par with Ireland. 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