{"id":16438,"date":"2020-10-21T15:01:33","date_gmt":"2020-10-21T15:01:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=16438"},"modified":"2022-02-26T23:20:59","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T23:20:59","slug":"the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"The accuracy of COVID-19 death statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><b>In summary:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><b>Three sets of figures regarding numbers of deaths attributed to COVID-19 are collated which crucially vary in their timeliness.&nbsp;<\/b><\/li><li><b>We now know that COVID-19 was not the cause of death for one in 10 people who had symptoms of the virus mentioned on their death certificate.<\/b><\/li><li><b>Conversely, 90% of people whose death certificate mentions COVID-19 were killed by it.<\/b><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20053\" srcset=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-65x37.jpg 65w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-75x42.jpg 75w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-71x40.jpg 71w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-twitter-banner-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400;\">The number of deaths recorded due to COVID-19 in Northern Ireland is a figure that informs much reporting and fuels much debate about the current pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Several distinct sets of figures are produced, each with different timeliness, regularity, and levels of scrutiny. They are intended to be used in different ways. In general, the more accurate the information, the longer it takes to be produced. So, while operational data may be less accurate, it can be validated over time to verify its usefulness.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Waiting weeks or months until all deaths are registered and their primary cause have been codified and checked is not an appropriate measure, given the clear urgency of needing to track the spread and impact of the virus. More immediate analysis is required to support those making daily decisions about how to configure the health service, make legislative changes, and inform public health messaging.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Back in April, FactCheckNI investigated <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/articles\/its-all-about-the-test-counting-covid-19-deaths\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">some of the different ways COVID-deaths were being reported<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This explainer article looks at the three main sets of figures, and compares their consistency.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"724\" src=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-1024x724.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20052\" srcset=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-1024x724.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-768x543.jpg 768w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-1536x1086.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-2048x1448.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-65x46.jpg 65w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-150x106.jpg 150w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-71x50.jpg 71w, https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/poster-1-the-accuracy-of-COVID19-death-statistics-57x40.jpg 57w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Three sets of figures<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Period<\/b><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>DoH: cumulative daily figures of deaths occurring based on positive COVID-19 tests<\/b><\/p><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>NISRA: weekly figures based on mentions on registered death certificates<\/b><\/p><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>General Registrar Quarterly Report: registered deaths with a primary cause of COVID-19<\/b><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1 January \u2013 30 June 2020*<\/span><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">551<\/span><\/p><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">830<\/span><\/p><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">755<\/span><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lag time<\/span><\/i><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1 day<\/span><\/i><\/p><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">6 days<\/span><\/i><\/p><\/td><td><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">between 11\u201324 weeks<\/span><\/i><\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">* Note that the daily figures are for deaths <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">occurring<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the period, whereas the weekly and quarterly figures are for deaths <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">registered<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the period. For example, figures for week ending 3 July show that 839 deaths had occurred (which mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate), while only 835 deaths had been registered by that date. This minor discrepancy does not alter the 10% difference between weekly and quarterly figures.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Daily<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Northern Ireland\u2019s Department of Health (DoH) publishes a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.health-ni.gov.uk\/articles\/covid-19-daily-dashboard-updates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><b>daily figure for deaths reported in the 24 hours up to 10am the previous day<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. (Responsibility for these figures switched from the Public Health Authority on 19 April.) This is based on <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.health-ni.gov.uk\/publications\/covid-19-guidance-surrounding-death\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">an accelerated process of reporting deaths<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and will include deaths which have occurred during that period, as well as any that occurred earlier but whose reporting was delayed.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Deaths are attributed as \u201cCOVID-19 deaths\u201d in the DoH\u2019s figures if the person had a positive test for COVID-19 within the previous 28 days. This measure is now broadly consistent across the UK and allows regional comparisons to be made.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Someone with a positive test could die after being struck by lightning, or die from injuries sustained in a car crash. However, medium- and long-term analysis of COVID-19 deaths suggests that the over-reporting of COVID-19 deaths in daily figures is minimal, given the number of COVID-19 deaths already not included in these daily figures.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/app.powerbi.com\/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Death Details pane of the DoH dashboard<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> shows that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.health-ni.gov.uk\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/health\/db-300620.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">551 COVID-19 deaths occurred by 30 June<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weekly<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publishes <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/publications\/weekly-deaths\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><b>weekly figures based on COVID-19 being mentioned on death certificates<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (with or without a positive test). Unlike the DoH figures, NISRA\u2019s weekly statistics include deaths of people who did not have a positive test at the time of death. Statistics are published at 9.30am every Friday morning for the seven days up to the previous Friday, a reporting lag of six days.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NISRA\u2019s figures will include people whose certifying doctor notes COVID-19 symptoms, but died of a different primary cause once further analysis is conducted.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the first six months of 2020, NISRA\u2019s weekly figures<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">show that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/sites\/nisra.gov.uk\/files\/publications\/STATISTICS%20PRESS%20NOTICE%20%E2%80%93%20REGISTRAR%20GENERAL%20QUARTERLY%20REPORT%2C%20Q2%202020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">there were 830 deaths registered <\/span><b>mentioning COVID-19<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on the death certificate<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/sites\/nisra.gov.uk\/files\/publications\/Historical%20Weekly%20Deaths%20Bulletin%20-%20Week%20ending%203rd%20July%202020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">835 registered by week ending 3 July<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Quarterly<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/statistics\/births-deaths-and-marriages\/registrar-general-quarterly-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><b>Registrar General Quarterly Report<\/b> <\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is published by NISRA in line with other UK statistical agencies and categorises deaths by cause. The primary cause of death is precisely coded against the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/icd.who.int\/browse10\/2019\/en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ICD-10 international model<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These are the most accurate, but also the slowest to produce, figures for COVID-19 deaths.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the first six months of 2020, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/publications\/registrar-general-quarterly-tables-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NISRA\u2019s quarterly figures<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nisra.gov.uk\/sites\/nisra.gov.uk\/files\/publications\/STATISTICS%20PRESS%20NOTICE%20%E2%80%93%20REGISTRAR%20GENERAL%20QUARTERLY%20REPORT%2C%20Q2%202020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">explain<\/span> <\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">that there were 755 deaths where COVID-19 was the primary cause.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Comparing figures<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><b>daily figures<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from DoH do not include deaths of people who had not been tested or had not received a positive test result for COVID-19. NISRA explains that these operational data \u201care important because they are available earlier, and therefore give a quicker indication of what is happening day by day\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><b>weekly figures<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from NISRA based on mentions of COVID-19 are therefore higher than the daily DoH figures: 50.6% higher across the first six months of 2020. But it takes nearly a week for them to be compiled. (Comparing the latest figures available, the DoH reported 587 deaths associated with COVID-19 by 9 October, while NISRA figures show 913 COVID-19-related deaths, 55.5% higher than DoH.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><b>quarterly figures<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> are the most accurate, but the slowest to produce. For the first half of 2020, the cumulative weekly figures are 10% higher than the quarterly statistics. However, the second quarter analysis (ending 30 June) was only published on 17 September.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>In summary:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><b>COVID-19 was not the cause of death for one in 10 people who had symptoms of the virus mentioned on their death certificate.<\/b><\/li><li><b>Conversely, 90% of people whose death certificate mentions COVID-19 were killed by it.<\/b><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Other statistics<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the pandemic, FactCheckNI has also looked into <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/articles\/how-has-covid-19-contributed-to-excess-deaths-in-northern-ireland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">excess deaths<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/articles\/deep-dive-covid-19-related-inequalities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">COVID-19-related<\/span><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/articles\/covid-19-and-health-inequalities-in-northern-ireland\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">health inequalities<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In summary: Three sets of figures regarding numbers of deaths attributed to COVID-19 are collated which crucially vary in their timeliness.&nbsp; We now know that COVID-19 was not the cause of death for one in 10 people who had symptoms of the virus mentioned on their death certificate. Conversely, 90% of people whose death certificate&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21523,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[205,238,74],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The accuracy of COVID-19 death statistics - FactCheckNI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The accuracy of COVID-19 death statistics - FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In summary: Three sets of figures regarding numbers of deaths attributed to COVID-19 are collated which crucially vary in their timeliness.&nbsp; We now know that COVID-19 was not the cause of death for one in 10 people who had symptoms of the virus mentioned on their death certificate. Conversely, 90% of people whose death certificate...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/factcheckni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-21T15:01:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-26T23:20:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/covid-excess.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FactCheckNI\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"FactCheckNI\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"FactCheckNI\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/#\/schema\/person\/85d1ea0fa0159339bdadca79e73ec7fa\"},\"headline\":\"The accuracy of COVID-19 death statistics\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-21T15:01:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-26T23:20:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/\"},\"wordCount\":933,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/covid-excess.png\",\"keywords\":[\"COVID-19\",\"public health\",\"statistics\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Health\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/the-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-statistics\/\",\"name\":\"The accuracy of COVID-19 death statistics - 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