{"id":15787,"date":"2020-08-04T16:04:35","date_gmt":"2020-08-04T16:04:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/?p=15787"},"modified":"2022-02-27T00:29:58","modified_gmt":"2022-02-27T00:29:58","slug":"how-has-covid-19-contributed-to-excess-deaths-in-northern-ireland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/factcheckni.org\/topics\/health\/how-has-covid-19-contributed-to-excess-deaths-in-northern-ireland\/","title":{"rendered":"How has COVID-19 contributed to excess deaths in Northern Ireland?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
What are \u201cexcess deaths\u201d, and how does the figure for Northern Ireland compare with elsewhere in the UK and across Europe?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n [This explainer article is part of the COVID-19 Information Dissemination (COVID-19 ID) Project<\/a> \u2014 a partnership between Community Development and Health Network (CDHN)<\/a> and FactCheckNI<\/a>. Its aim is to improve people\u2019s health literacy about COVID-19 by providing accurate and up-to-date information<\/a>, which will increase knowledge, understanding and confidence and enable people to make good health decisions.]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cExcess deaths\u201d are defined<\/a> as deaths during a given period that are greater than the usual number of deaths in similar historic time periods. Variations above or below the predicted average may indicate an event, for example a strain of influenza that resulted in more deaths than usual. For 2020, the most significant event associated with excess deaths is likely to be the presence of the novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Excess death figures are a better measure across countries than counting deaths from COVID-19, due to the different ways<\/a> that deaths associated with COVID-19 are counted. Alongside people counted in figures<\/a> for those who tested positive for COVID-19 and subsequently died, other people die from COVID-19 symptoms without being tested for the disease. FactCheckNI has published articles about these different measures (1<\/a>) (2<\/a>) (3<\/a>). Analysing all deaths takes into account indirect effects of the pandemic<\/a>, such as deaths that may be related to changes in access to healthcare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cumulative excess deaths and COVID-19 related deaths in Northern Ireland<\/strong> These figures and other analysis in the NISRA bulletin are based on the date when people died rather than when their death was formally registered. It includes data from the deaths registered up to 15 July 2020, to account for any time lag between occurrence<\/em> and registration<\/em> of death.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chart: Cumulative number of excess deaths and COVID-19 related deaths, 1 March to 30 June 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Excess deaths can be calculated for various demographics, including age and sex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Northern Ireland, both excess deaths and COVID-19 related deaths increase with age<\/a>. Excess deaths for the age group 55-64 years (95) were more than double that of COVID-19 related deaths (40). NISRA suggests<\/a> that \u201cdirect effects of the pandemic could account for less than half of the impact on excess mortality in this age group\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Are excess deaths uniform across place of death in Northern Ireland?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the four month period, the NISRA report shows<\/a> a negative (or lesser) excess death figure in hospitals (-88) and a higher figure of excess deaths at home (556). This is in contrast to the figures for COVID-19 related deaths in hospitals (434) and at home (44).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chart: Northern Ireland excess deaths and COVID-19 related deaths, by place of death, from 1 March to 30 June 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n NISRA suggests<\/a> that this might be partly explained by hospitals retaining capacity for COVID-19 patients as well as restrictions on hospital visitors, leading some patients to decide to receive palliative care at home. At care homes, the figures for excess deaths (336) and COVID-19 related deaths (346) are similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NISRA states<\/a> that during this period, total deaths in care homes were 32.1% higher than the average over the past five years. The following chart shows excess deaths and COVID-19 related deaths, by place of death, from 1 March to 30 June 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How does Northern Ireland compare with the rest of the UK?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Weekly data on deaths for 2020 and past years are available for England<\/a>, Wales<\/a>, Scotland<\/a>, and Northern Ireland<\/a>. For the 2020 pandemic event, comparing against the average deaths from 2015-2019, all four countries show a similar sharp increase in the number of excess deaths, followed by a decrease towards no excess deaths. This is illustrated by the following chart, based on dates of registration of deaths, which plots weekly excess deaths for the year 2020, per million of the country\u2019s population; FactCheckNI used mid-2019 population estimates<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chart: Weekly excess deaths per million of UK country population (2020), calendar weeks 1-28 (ending 19\/7\/2020)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Over an 11-week period that covers the worst weeks of the pandemic\u2014calendar weeks 13\u201323\u2014England recorded the highest figure of excess deaths. By standardising per million population, the following table shows relative figures of excess deaths during this 11-week period, by country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table: Excess Deaths from Week 13-23 by UK Country per Million Population<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 28 July 2020, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published a bulletin<\/a> that includes a chart of the cumulative number of excess deaths and COVID-19 related deaths in Northern Ireland between 1 March and 30 June 2020. Over this four month period, there were:<\/p>\n\n\n\n