UPDATE: A previous version of this article applied a survey from Ashcroft Polls from May/June 2018. This updated version uses a more recent Ashcroft Poll from September 2019. The result is a change of conclusion from “Inaccurate” to “Accurate”.
CLAIM: There is 51% support for a united Ireland.
CONCLUSION: ACCURATE. Although the Sinn Fein manifesto didn’t declare the exclusion of “don’t knows”, this revises a 44/45/7 split to a rounded 49/51 split between staying in the UK and leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland.
Continue reading Is there 51% support for Ireland unity?
CLAIM: Over 95% of people living in south Belfast own their own home.
CONCLUSION: INACCURATE. The 2011 Census shows that the Belfast South constituency recorded 56.1% of homes being owned outright or owned with a mortgage or loan. Continue reading Do over 95% of south Belfast residents own their own home?
CLAIM: Ninety per cent of those who died during the Troubles were killed by paramilitaries.
CONCLUSION: ACCURATE WITH CONSIDERATION. Statistics about killings during the Troubles suggest that 87% of killings were perpetrated by paramilitary groupings, with the figure falling to 85% if evidence to date about collusion is taken into account. However, classifications of responsibility will continue to change as further evidence comes to light. Continue reading Were 90% of those who died during “the Troubles” killed by paramilitaries?
CLAIM: Only 3 out of 12 regions are net contributors to the UK Treasury.
CONCLUSION: ACCURATE. Data from the ONS showed that only three regions of the UK — London, the southeast and the east of England — ran a fiscal surplus in the 2017-18 financial year, the latest year for which figures are available. Continue reading Are only 3 out of 12 regions net contributors to the UK Treasury?
CLAIM: Northern Ireland has the highest rate of femicide in Western Europe.
CONCLUSION: INACCURATE WITH CONSIDERATION. Northern Ireland has the second highest rate (0.53) of female intentional homicide victims by intimate partner, per 100,000 inhabitants, in Western Europe, as defined by WEOG (given the lack of definition of “Western Europe”) and the regions covered by the data published by Eurostat. Continue reading Does Northern Ireland have the highest femicide rate in Western Europe?
CLAIM: There are 40,000 third-level students in northwest Ireland, with 7,000 graduates annually ready for employment.
CONCLUSION: INACCURATE. Available data shows 9,370 third-level students in northwest Ireland, with approximately 3,300 graduates a year in the region. The Ireland Northwest Trade & Investment mission may have included figures for Ulster University Coleraine, which is outside the geography covered by the partnership. Even so, the claim is a large overestimation. Continue reading Are there 40,000 third-level students in the northwest of Ireland?