Must the SoS call a post-Brexit border poll?

CLAIM: The voting results from Northern Ireland of the EU referendum compels the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to call a border boll.

CONCLUSION: INACCURATE. The Secretary of State may bring forth a border poll when presented with evidence that a majority of electors may choose to change the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. There has been no evidence yet published. Continue reading Must the SoS call a post-Brexit border poll?

What is EU to Northern Ireland net migration?

CLAIM: Over a quarter of a million people migrate to the UK from the EU every year.

CONCLUSION: ACCURATE WITH CONSIDERATION. The claim is true, but it doesn’t include the number of people migrating from the UK to the EU: net migration in 2015 was +184,000. There is no single source that tracks migration to Northern Ireland. Medical card registrations are one method. The 2011 Census showed that 2.16% of the Northern Ireland population held an EU/EEA passport. Continue reading What is EU to Northern Ireland net migration?

Is Northern Ireland a net contributor to the EU?

CLAIM: Northern Ireland is a net contributor to the EU.

CONCLUSION:  INACCURATE. We estimate that Northern Ireland was a net recipient of £74 million in the 2014/15 financial year. Others have claimed that Northern Ireland is a recipient of £58 million, but this fails to take into account the requirement for match funding under the PEACE Programme and the exact value of farm subsidies. Continue reading Is Northern Ireland a net contributor to the EU?

Would Brexit lead to a customs frontier?

CLAIM: A customs frontier between Ireland and Northern Ireland land border is unavoidable in the event of a United Kingdom withdrawal from the European Union.

CONCLUSION: UNSUBSTANTIATED. There is no non-EU member state that currently has a customs-free border with the EU, even if they are members of the Schengen Area and maintain the free movement of people. There is no existing model that would permit the continued lack of a customs frontier in Northern Ireland if the UK left the EU. Continue reading Would Brexit lead to a customs frontier?