CLAIM: Over a quarter of a million people migrate to the UK from the EU every year.
CONCLUSION: The claim is true, but it doesn’t include the number of people migrating from the UK to the EU: net migration in 2015 was +184,000. There is no single source that tracks migration to Northern Ireland. Medical card registrations are one method. The 2011 Census showed that 2.16% of the Northern Ireland population held an EU/EEA passport. Continue reading What is EU to Northern Ireland net migration?
CLAIM: Northern Ireland is a net contributor to the EU.
CONCLUSION: This claim is false, as we estimate that Northern Ireland was a net recipient of £74 million in the 2014/15 financial year. Others have claimed that Northern Ireland is a recipient of £58 million, but this fails to take into account the requirement for match funding under the PEACE Programme and the exact value of farm subsidies. Continue reading Is Northern Ireland a net contributor to the EU?
CLAIM: A customs frontier between Ireland and Northern Ireland land border is unavoidable in the event of a United Kingdom withdrawal from the European Union.
CONCLUSION: There is no non-EU member state that currently has a customs-free border with the EU, even if they are members of the Schengen Area and maintain the free movement of people. There is no existing model that would permit the continued lack of a customs frontier in Northern Ireland if the UK left the EU. Continue reading Would Brexit lead to a customs frontier?
CLAIM: Lord Mandelson speaking about the border with Ireland in case of Brexit: “It would mean a return to customs posts, border checks; I don’t know exactly what the arrangements would be …”
CONCLUSION: Travel between the UK and Ireland is currently unaffected by EU membership, as they have both opted out of joining the Schengen Area and maintained their own Common Travel Area since long before the EU came into existence. If the UK left Europe, then the land border with Northern Ireland could be maintained by the introduction of internal border enforcement and/or greater cooperation between British and Irish governments in a shared policy toward their external borders. Continue reading Would Brexit lead to Northern Ireland land border checks?
CLAIM: 1 in 8 jobs in Northern Ireland is supported by European Union (EU) membership.
CONCLUSION: While 1 in 8 jobs in Northern Ireland is not necessarily dependent on EU membership, a growing portion of the labour market is related to trade with the EU. This growth is particularly substantial in Northern Ireland, and it is difficult to predict if it would be sustained without the single market. Continue reading Are 1 in 8 jobs supported by EU membership?