• Net migration – meaning migration to and from anywhere else in the world – was ‘positive’ (around +2,300) in the latest available figures (year to mid-2022) .
  • International migration into NI from outside the UK was also ‘positive’ (around +5,000) in the latest figures.
  • Net migration was ‘negative’ in the years ending mid-2020 and mid-2021.

On 8 August during an emergency recall debate about racism and violent protests, TUV MLA Timothy Gaston claimed:

“I have repeatedly heard it claimed that the number of people leaving Northern Ireland is greater than the number of those coming here. Data published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency proves that claim to be false. In fact, there was a net international flow of over 5,000 people in the year ending mid-2022.”

On 12 August, the Alliance Party published an “evidence paper” around immigration into Northern Ireland, which claimed:

“In the year ending mid-2022 (the latest data available), net migration to Northern Ireland was barely over 2,300 – representing a small fraction of our population of around 1.9 million.”

So, what’s going on here?

The short version is this: they’re both accurate.

One figure – net international flow, used by Mr Gaston – refers only to the balance of people leaving Northern Ireland for somewhere outside the UK or entering NI from such a place.

The other – total net migration, as cited by the Alliance Party – also includes data about people entering (or leaving) here from (or to) somewhere else in the UK, meaning it is the bottom-line figure for all migration in and out of NI.

Let’s take a closer look at the figures.

  • How does a population grow or shrink?

Population estimates are based on ‘natural change’ (births minus deaths) and ‘net migration’ (people entering minus people leaving).

According to the latest NISRA bulletin, the net natural change in Northern Ireland has been greater than the net migration figures every year since at least as far back as 2011. It has also been positive every year, unlike the net migration figures (which has been positive overall, although several individual years have seen net-negative migration).

  • What do the latest migration figures say?

NISRA splits migration into and out of Northern Ireland into two categories:

  • UK migration – captures the flow of people between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK; and 
  • International migration (formerly known as ‘migration to elsewhere’) – measuring the movement of people between Northern Ireland and locations outside the UK.

Net migration combines the figures for both.

For completeness, figures for the overall change in NI population also take into account fluctuations in the number of armed forces personnel stationed in Northern Ireland. Since mid-2017, this figure has always been lower than ±200. There were 91 fewer service personnel by the end of the year to mid-2022.

The latest figures can be found in the 2022 Mid-year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland (published on 31 August 2023).

Figure 1 – source: NISRA

Using statistics from the spreadsheet that underlie the map, 5,020 more people from outside the UK were estimated to have entered Northern Ireland in the year ending mid-2022 than left to move to international locations.

Therefore, TUV’s Timothy Gaston is accurate when he says “there was a net international flow of over 5,000 people in the year ending mid-2022”. 

The overall net migration – taking into account people arriving from and leaving to go to elsewhere in the UK and beyond – adds together the UK and International figures, showing that net migration was positive (+2,314) in the year ending mid-2022.

The Alliance Party’s Evidence Paper is accurate when it says “net migration to Northern Ireland was barely over 2,300”.

It’s worth explaining that these figures do not take account of the nationality of individual migrants. A British citizen who moves to Northern Ireland from Singapore would count as an international arrival. Someone who originally arrived in Great Britain from elsewhere internationally and later moved to Northern Ireland would count as a domestic migrant.

  • Has NI’s net migration recently been negative?

It’s impossible to fact check the TUV MLA’s statement that “I have repeatedly heard it claimed that the number of people leaving Northern Ireland is greater than the number of those coming here”.

While it’s certainly not accurate for anyone to claim that net migration is negative in the latest figures, it’s easy to discover whether that was ever the case in recent times?

Comparative figures from NISRA looking back at 2001–2022 show that net migration was negative in six years during that period, most recently 2011–2013 as well as 2020 (-3,348) and 2021 (-403).

International migration was last negative in 2020 (-1822), and UK migration was negative 2020–2022.

  • When will the figures next be revised?

These NISRA statistics are updated annually, and at the time of publishing this fact check, new figures – the 2023 Mid-year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland – are due to be issued at the end of August.