• There has been a decline in PSNI officer numbers from around 7,000 in 2022 to 6,200 according to the most up-to-date figures.
  • However, not all this decline occurred during the most recent Executive collapse. Naomi Long resumed office in February 2024 – and, between the month following that and the most-up-to-date figures, PSNI numbers have continued to fall.
  • The social media post from the Alliance Party also contains a number of other inaccuracies or misrepresentations. Mrs Long was not the Justice Minister in 2019. By March 2020 – only two months after she first assumed her post – officer numbers were already at 6,973, just 65 short of their recent highpoint, according to annual figures, of 7,038 in March 2022.
  • It is important to note that Mrs Long previously told the Assembly that the most recent Stormont collapse was a key reason for the post-2022 drop in officer numbers. At the same time, while the Justice Ministry is a crucial role, it is not the only factor in whether PSNI numbers rise or fall.

On 6 October on the social media site X (formerly Twitter), the Alliance Party posted the following:

Figure 1 – source: Alliance Party social media

This is not supported by evidence.

The dates in this graph attributed to Naomi Long’s periods as the Minister of Justice are misleading in several ways. Mrs Long was not in post in 2019 and the latest period of collapse ended in February 2024 – with the Alliance Party leader back in position since then.

This is particularly important given that the Alliance Party’s post states that “The DUP’s collapse cost us 800 police officers” and shows a graph with a decline in officers that precisely coincides with a period of Executive dysfunction.

PSNI officer numbers hit a five-year high – according to annual figures – of 7,038 in March 2022 and this had dropped to 6,394 in March 2024 (by which time Mrs Long had resumed her ongoing tenure).

That is a drop of under 650, not 800. However, that 800 threshold has been passed according to the most recent figures, as of 1 October this year, which puts officer numbers at 6,190 (a total decline of 848).

In particular, this indicates that total officer numbers have declined over the past 20 months – entirely during Mrs Long’s current tenure as Justice Minister, conflicting with the post’s assertion that “Under Naomi Long, police numbers grew.”

This is despite the fact that the social media post labels the whole period with dropping officer numbers down to a total of around 6,200 as part of the “DUP’s collapse”.

Overall, the data as presented by the Alliance Party contains a number of misrepresentations which are outlined in this article.

Mrs Long told the Assembly back in June that the main reason there was a significant drop in officer numbers following 2022 was “because the previous Chief Constable decided not to go out and recruit in a period when the Executive were not here, because he did not feel that he had the confidence, in terms of political leadership, to spend that money without the political cover to do so.”

The Justice Ministry is obviously a key position within the entire justice system in Northern Ireland (including policing). However, it is not the only factor affecting total officer numbers. For instance, the PSNI received a funding boost from Westminster ahead of 2020 that included money to increase officer numbers, while a recent recovery plan for the organisation was drawn up internally, before being sent to the Justice Minister and Finance Minister for consultation.

For more details, read on.

  • Source

FactCheckNI contacted the Alliance Party regarding the claims on social media and they responded and provided us with some information that supports the information depicted in this social media post and graph. They responded by pointing us in the direction of various pieces of information:

  • PSNI headcount data showing that the number of regular officers rose up to over 7,000 by the time Naomi left office in 2022 and then began to fall during the period of collapse: provided link here. 
  • PSNI headcount data showing how low officer numbers are today: link here.
  • In terms of evidencing that the Recovery Plan will lift the number of officers to 7,000 over the next 3 years, here is one of many public statements from the Chief Constable of the PSNI confirming that: link here (note that our fact check will largely disregard this aspect of the social media post because it is not possible to fact check the future).
  • Official Hansard report attached detailing the reasons why police officer numbers fell under the DUP’s collapse of Stormont. See specifically the highlighted section on page 41: link here.

With regards to that final bullet point, the passage being referred to in Hansard is a partial response from Mrs Long during a question session with the Justice Minister on 2 June this year, in which DUP MLA Maurice Bradley asked the Minister why there has been a reduction in officer numbers since 2020. In the relevant part of her response, Mrs Long said:

“It was because the previous Chief Constable decided not to go out and recruit in a period when the Executive were not here, because he did not feel that he had the confidence, in terms of political leadership, to spend that money without the political cover to do so. That is why the figures fell quite dramatically. As the Member may recall, we increased police numbers from 7,000 to 7,100 during the previous mandate when I was in office. We have fallen quite far from that, and attrition, year-on-year, was quite significant.”

  • Assessing the Alliance chart

The chart posted by the Alliance Party leaves some room for interpretation (which, broadly speaking and in accordance with best practice in illustrating data, graphs based on specific figures should not do).

Figure 1 – source: Alliance Party social media

It’s not entirely clear precisely which points on the x-axis correspond to each calendar year, if data for each year is from a single point in time within that year (or what those dates might be, if so). However, some of what the graph is claiming is quite clear:

  • Officer numbers were on the rise before the most recent Stormont collapse, increasing from around 6,700 in 2019 to around 7,000 in 2022.
  • This trend then reversed “under DUP’s [sic] collapse” with numbers declining from 7,000 in 2022 to around 6,200 in 2025 – a point made explicitly in the text accompanying the graph, which said “The DUP’s collapse cost us 800 police officers”.

This fact check will disregard the period of the graph labelled “Our Recovery Plan” because it is not possible to fact check the future.

  • Devolved Justice

Justice powers were devolved to the Northern Ireland Assembly in April 2010, leading to the establishment of the Department of Justice. Since then, there have been three Ministers of Justice:

  • David Ford (Alliance) from April 2010 to May 2016.
  • Claire Sugden (Independent) from May 2016 to January 2017.
  • Naomi Long (Alliance) from January 2020 to October 2022, and again since February 2024.
  • Policing numbers

Official data on PSNI officer numbers can be found in figures published by the Northern Ireland Policing Board and in PSNI annual reports.

The chart below shows the annual figures for the number of regular officers employed by the PSNI since the establishment of the force in 2001. These annual figures are correct at 31 March of the year in question. The reporting date aligns with the financial year and does not line up neatly with ministerial terms of office, meaning it is not entirely straightforward to map rises and falls directly onto any individual Minister’s time in office.

The one exception is the extra figure for 2025, which comes from the PSNI’s Strength of Police Service Statistics. This is the most up-to-date source for policing numbers that FactCheckNI was able to find, and states that on 1 October 2025 the PSNI 

The chart also includes the periods for which a Stormont Justice Minister was in post, following the devolution of policing powers from London to Belfast.

Figure 2 – source: NIPB/PSNI

Key points:

  • In David Ford’s tenure (April 2010 to May 2016), the 31 March officer numbers declined from 7,405 (2010 – i.e. immediately prior to Mr Ford taking office) to 6,857 (2016).
  • During the Executive’s suspension from 2017 to 2020, the 31 March officer numbers rose slightly from 6,821 (2017) to 6,973 (2020).
  • Naomi Long’s first term ran from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022. On the 31 March headcount series there is a modest rise from 6,973 (2020, less than three months after the Minister took office) to 7,038 (2022).
  • The subsequent fall to 6,730 (2023) spans roughly seven months when a minister was in post and five months when no Executive existed. Without monthly data it is not possible to allocate that fall cleanly to either period.
  • After the re-establishment of the Executive in February 2024, numbers continued to fall, from 6,394 on 31 March 2024 (less than two months after the Minister returned to post) to 6,190 on 1 October 2025.
  • Comparing the data with the Alliance graph

The Alliance line graph claims to depict PSNI officer numbers over time. Labelled “Under Alliance,” the line rises from around 2019 to 2022, then shows a period of decline from 2022 to 2025 which it attributes to the “DUP’s collapse”.

This presentation is in parts selective and in others plainly misleading.

Partial year 2019-20: Naomi Long first became Justice Minister in 2020. Prior to that, the only other Alliance MLA to serve in this position (David Ford) finished his tenure in May 2016 while, in between, Claire Sugden (an independent unionist MLA) occupied the position from May 2016 to January 2017. Following the 2017-2020 collapse, the Executive restarted in January 2020, not in 2019.

On 31 March 2020 – when the Minister was in office – the PSNI had 6,973 serving officers, which was a rise of over 250 on the 31 March 2019 figure of 6,736 It is difficult to know to what degree, if any, Minister Long herself would have been able to do anything to boost officer numbers less than three months after taking office (if anyone does know, please get in touch). Regardless, suggesting that any period which includes 2019 as “Under Alliance” is misleading.

March 2020 to March 2022, inclusive: this period was entirely Mrs Long’s tenure as Justice Minister and, in this time, officer numbers rose from 6,973 to 7,038.

Partial year 2022-23, and beyond: between 31 March 2022 and 31 March 2023, officer numbers fell from 7,038 to 6,730. Slightly more than the first half of this time came under the Alliance Leader’s time in office, while the rest was under the most recent period without a serving Executive – however, the Alliance graph inaccurately suggests this was entirely under a period of collapse.

In fact, the Alliance graph indicates that this period of collapse continued until 2025 and that this time coincided with an ongoing decline in officer numbers.

Instead, Mrs Long returned to post as Justice Minister in February 2024 and, at the end of the following month the PSNI, had 6,394 serving officers – a number which has since fallen (entirely under the Minister’ tenure) to 6,190 according to the most up-to-date data FactCheckNI was able to find (for 1 October 2025).

This conflicts with the assertion in the post that, “Under Naomi Long, police numbers grew.”

Note that the text in the social media post states that “The DUP’s collapse cost us 800 police officers”. Since 2019, the 31 March officer numbers peaked at 7,038 in 2022. By 2024, just after the return of the Executive, they were at 6,394. This represents a decline of 644, not 800.

Comparing that peak of 7,038 with the latest figures of 6,190 (as of 1 October 2025) does show a drop of 848 – but this includes almost 20 months of Mrs Long’s latest tenure.

The Alliance Party’s post misrepresents the dates of various periods of Executive collapse and, accordingly, the dates during which its own Party Leader was in office as the Minister of Justice.

It is correct to say that officer numbers declined substantially during the most recent period of Executive dysfunction. It is also true that the Minister told the Assembly on 2 June that the collapse itself played a key role in this, saying that the then Chief Constable did not feel able to release funds for extra recruitment “without the political cover to do so.

However, officer numbers are lower today than they were in March 2024. The Alliance Party’s graph wrongly attributes the most recent dips in PSNI officer numbers to a period of collapse when in fact Mrs Long has been in post since February 2024.

Based on all this evidence, the social media post from the Alliance Party is not supported by evidence.

  • Wider context

This fact check focuses largely on comparing the times of Executive collapse or functionality with the changing number of PSNI Officer numbers.

However, it is also worth acknowledging that the Justice Minister plays a key role in the entire justice system within NI but is not the only factor in how many officers the PSNI employs or can employ. The PSNI annual accounts for 2020 note that:

“The UK left the EU on the January 31 2020; the PSNI continues also to plan for the end of the current transitional period on the 31 December 2020. PSNI received additional funding in 2019-20 of £20.2m to prepare for the exit from the EU. This budget enabled 308 officers and staff to be funded from this allocation. The current budget allocation for 2020-21 includes £9.8m towards these costs. However additional funding is still required to meet costs of preparing for the EU exit.”

This funding occurred during a period of collapse. Then Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley promised additional funding for the PSNI in a speech to the Police Federation for Northern Ireland (PFNI) in May 2018, while media reports in December 2018 highlighted how the PSNI would be able to recruit an additional 308 officers by April 2020 thanks to extra money from Westminster (see here, here and here).

It is worth repeating, however, the points made by the Justice Minister in the Assembly on 2 June, in relation to why officer numbers fell so much following 2020 – a fact she lays at the feet of the most recent collapse of the Executive:

“It was because the previous Chief Constable decided not to go out and recruit in a period when the Executive were not here, because he did not feel that he had the confidence, in terms of political leadership, to spend that money without the political cover to do so. That is why the figures fell quite dramatically. As the Member may recall, we increased police numbers from 7,000 to 7,100 during the previous mandate when I was in office. We have fallen quite far from that, and attrition, year-on-year, was quite significant.”
The Alliance graph also mentions “Our Recovery Plan”. This recovery plan was prepared by the PSNI and later approved by both the Department of Justice and Department of Finance, with the Justice Minister saying it would ultimately be for the Finance Minister to bring it to the Executive for approval.