- The latest official stats, covering 2024, state there are 114,673 people on the diabetes register in NI.
- This represents a rise of about 32,000 – or 40% – from 2014. Cases have risen fairly steadily, by just over 3,000 per year, and health officials expect this to continue.
- The figure of £1m-per-day costs for diabetes in NI is based on dated research from 2012.
- A newer study from last year suggests the cost is more like £800k per day – although it also predicts this will rise to £1.44m per day within ten years.
- That same study suggests the annual cost for managing the consequences of diabetes is around £162m.
In a debate in the Assembly on 29 April, DUP MLA Cheryl Brownlee claimed:
“Almost 115,000 people here live with diabetes, and that number continues to grow year-on-year. Type 2 diabetes accounts for most of those cases, but, among children, 98% of those diagnosed have type 1 diabetes, which is an autoimmune condition that cannot be prevented.”
During the discussion that followed, several other Assembly Members mentioned figures that were the same or similar.
Sinn Féin’s Philip McGuigan said:
“According to the Diabetes Network in the North, almost 115,000 people here are living with diabetes, and, as has been stated, that figure is rising. There is an annual rise of 3,000. That translates to a financial cost of nearly £300 million a year to treat and care for diabetics living in the North. More than 10 people are diagnosed every day in the North, so that cost will rise continually. It is also estimated that 12,000 individuals are living with type 2 diabetes but have not yet been diagnosed.”
Alliance Party MLA Danny Donnelly said:
“Today, almost 115,000 people in Northern Ireland are living with diabetes, and that number is rising by more than 3,000 every year. It is not just individuals who are feeling the strain; our health service is under increasing pressure too. Diabetes is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, which can lead to serious complications, such as heart attacks, angina and strokes. According to Diabetes UK, complications that are linked to diabetes cost our health service £162 million a year. That figure that is projected to rise to over £290 million within the next decade. That is simply not sustainable.”
Colin McGrath of the SDLP claimed:
“If we were to spend £1 million a day to give our children free sweets, I am sure that there would be absolute outcry — maybe not from the children, but from everybody within the health sector. In Northern Ireland, however, we spend in excess of £1 million every day to manage the consequences of diabetes, and the outcry is, at times, somewhat muted.”
UUP MLA Alan Chambers said:
“In just a decade, from 2014 to 2024, the number of people who are on the diabetic register jumped by 40%.”
The DUP’s Diane Dodds said:
“As of 31 March 2024, there were 114,673 patients on the diabetes register — that is a significant number. It equates to a raw prevalence rate of 70·3 per 1,000 patients.”
There are several aspects to this claim, and we found the following:
- Around 115,000 people in Northern Ireland currently live with diabetes.
The first aspect is supported by evidence. Based on the most recent figures on disease prevalence from the Department of Health, there are 114,673 patients recorded on the diabetes register.
- This number increased by 40% between 2014 and 2024 and is currently rising by around 3,000 per year.
The second is also supported by evidence. In the period between 2014 and 2024, the number of diagnosed patients grew from 81,867 to 114,673 – an increase of 32,806, or 40.1%. This also averages out at an increase of 3,200 per year and annual figures indicate that this growth was fairly steady.
Although it is not possible to fact check the future, the DoH says it expects the number of patients to grow by about 3,000 per year in the coming years.
- An estimated £1m per day is spent on tackling the disease.
The third aspect of this claim is not quite right. The estimated costs of £1m per day are based on studies from over a decade ago. New research from last year suggests the daily cost of addressing diabetes is around £800k per day (and suggests that these costs could rise to £1.44m per day within a decade).
- Annual health service costs to tackle complications arising from the condition (i.e. not counting money spent treating the disease itself) are currently around £162m.
That same research from last year provides evidence in support of this fourth aspect of this claim, that annual spending on managing the consequences of diabetes is around £162.
For more information, read on.
- Sources
FactCheckNI contacted each of the MLAs mentioned above to ask about these figures.
Ms Brownlee cited a press release from the Department of Health (DoH) which, in ancillary footnotes, states that “almost 115,000 people in Northern Ireland living with diabetes”.
Mr Donnelly replied referencing the same press release as Ms Brownlee for the figure of 115,000 people living with diabetes in NI, and a notice from Health and Social Care (HSC) about the Northern Ireland Diabetes Network which notes that the number rises by around 3,000 annually. He also noted that figures from Diabetes UK – a UK-wide charity dedicated to addressing diabetes and related challenges – suggest that the total cost for “complications” arising from diabetes, such as angina, heart attacks and strokes, is £162m per year and set to rise to over £290m within a decade.
Regarding his assertion that Northern Ireland spends over £1m per day to address diabetes, Mr McGrath pointed us to a 2018 report (Mr McGrath sent us the Executive Summary, while the full paper is here) from the Northern Ireland Audit Office (NIAO), which states that “Diabetes UK (Northern Ireland) has estimated that, locally, [treatment costs of Type 2 diabetes] amount to around £400 million annually”.
The SDLP MLA also referenced a 2023 press release from Diabetes UK, which states that the total cost is hard to quantify, but “it is estimated to be approximately £1million per day – accounting for 10% of the local health and social care budget”, a figure he also found in the DoH’s 2016 Diabetes Strategic Framework.
At the time of writing, Mr McGuigan, Mr Chambers and Mrs Dodds had not responded to our query.
- Prevalence
The first two aspects of this claim relate to the prevalence of diabetes within Northern Ireland, now and over time.
The Department of Health publishes annual data about disease prevalence. The latest figures were released almost a year ago – on 21 May 2024 – and include figures on diabetes.
According to Raw Disease Prevalence in Northern Ireland 2023/24, the figures for which are accurate at 31 March 2024:
“There were 114,673 GP patients recorded on the Diabetes Mellitus [a general term for diabetes, including both type 1 and type 2 of the condition] register at 31st March 2024. This equates to a raw prevalence rate of 70.3 per 1,000 patients (aged 17+).”
This supports the first aspect of this claim.
The “raw prevalence rate” of 70.3 cases per 1,000 patients aged 17 or over matches a further figure mentioned by Mrs Dodds in her contribution to the debate.
However, this does mean that over 7% of the population has diabetes, as this figure does not factor in children for whom the overall prevalence of diabetes is much lower than in the adult population.
The overall raw prevalence for diabetes is 55.9 cases per 1,000 patients (or 5.5% of the population).
That said, diabetes is one of the two conditions within this list that has an age requirement for its register – the other being chronic kidney disease – and the Health Department publication states that the prevalence of 70.3 per 1,000 is the figure calculated using the “appropriate” age group.
- Numbers over time
Did the number of people living with diabetes rise by 40% between 2014 and 2024? Is the total number of cases rising by around 3,000 per year?
Data tables accompanying the new raw disease prevalence figures state that, in 2014, the number of people in NI registered as living with diabetes was 81,867.
As the figure is now 114,673, we can see there was an increase of 32,806 in that ten-year period.
32,806 is 40.1% of 81,867 – so, according to the data, there was indeed a 40% rise in total cases in the decade between 2014 and 2024.
An illustration of this data can be seen in the chart below, which examines the changes in raw prevalence – i.e. number of cases per 1,000 patients aged 17+, meaning this chart is adjusted over time to balance for changes in the total adult population of Northern Ireland. In 2014, the number of people aged 17 and over was 1,511,575, compared with 1,631,336 in 2024.
Figure 1 – source: DoH
What about the suggestion that around 3,000 cases are set to be added every year?
It isn’t possible to fact check the future, but some aspects of this figure can still be examined.
From above, we know the number of cases increased by 32,806 in a decade, which is an average of 3,281 cases per year. The following graph of total cases by year shows that this increase has been fairly steady over time:
Figure 2 – source: DoH data tables
We can also highlight that HSC’s online information about the NI Diabetes Network includes the statement that:
“There are currently almost 115,000 people in Northern Ireland living with diabetes and this rises annually by more than 3,000 due to our ageing and growing population. It is estimated around 12,000 people are also living with Type 2 diabetes and have not yet been diagnosed.”
Again, no one can actually fact check the future. However, it is true that over the past ten years there has been an average annual rise in cases of just over 3,000, this rise has been fairly steady, and that the Northern Ireland health service says it expects this trend to continue.
Altogether, this provides evidence in support of the second aspect of this claim.
- Costs
How much does NI spend on both treating diabetes directly and managing the consequences of the disease?
In 2016, DoH published a Diabetes Strategic Framework, the foreword of which states:
“Every day here, on average, 10 people are newly diagnosed and £1 million is spent on services to meet the needs of people already living with the condition…
The citation supporting this claim traces back to a 2012 study that estimates the current and future costs of diabetes in the UK. The same £1m-per-day figure also appeared in a 2018 report from the NIAO and, as recently as 2023, Diabetes UK was still referring to this figure.
However, current estimates from Diabetes UK suggest the total spending on diabetes in NI is around £291m per year, or around £800k per day (see Figure 3, below). This is based on fresh research commissioned by the charity and published last year.
Figure 3 – source: Diabetes UK
FactCheckNI asked Diabetes UK which of the two estimates they considered to be more accurate. They told us that the research from last year, which put costs at £800k per day, was “the most up to date estimate we have” and that they “will be using [it] for the foreseeable future”.
It’s worth noting that, while this paper estimated costs at around £800k per day right now, it also says it expects these costs to rise to £524m per year – or £1.44m per day – by 2035. This same research paper estimated the annual costs of managing the consequences of diabetes (meaning this excludes any spending on direct treatment) at around £162m per year.
We also got in touch with the DoH to ask them the same questions but, at the time of writing, they have not responded.
Based on all this, it is not quite accurate to say that diabetes currently costs Northern Ireland £1m per day. This figure is based on old research that has since been superseded – however, that same new research suggests costs are rising rapidly and are likely to soon pass £1m per day.
