- Analysis of data from NISRA shows that annual drug-related deaths in NI have risen from around 100 per year in the early 2010s to around 200 in recent years.
- Recent figures indicate that NI has four times as many drug-misuse deaths per capita as the EU average, and its drug-induced death rate is higher than almost every country in Western Europe.
- However, all these observations come with caveats. Different jurisdictions collect and analyse information on drug-related deaths in many different ways, and precise like-for-like comparisons are challenging.
On 24 June on Radio Ulster, Green Party leader and Irish Senator Mal O’Hara claimed that:
“[We] have some of the highest drug deaths in Western Europe outside Scotland….. drug deaths have doubled in the last decade in NI.”
This claim has two strands:
- Northern Ireland has some of the highest drug-related deaths in Western Europe.
- Local drug-related deaths have increased by 100% in the past ten years.
Both are supported by evidence.
Data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency indicates that local drug-related deaths have increased from roughly 100 per year in the early 2010s to around 200 in the most recent available data.
Statistics from across the EU suggest NI has a higher rate of drug-related deaths than almost every country in Western Europe, with deaths per capita at around four times the EU average.
However, there are several different statistical approaches to measuring drug-related deaths, and there is no guarantee of consistency when comparing figures from one jurisdiction to those from another.
FactCheckNI contacted the Green Party Leader about this check, but at the time of writing, had received no response.
Let’s take a closer look.
- Before we get into the detail
For several reasons, statistics about drug-related drugs should be handled with care.
Official sources are keen to point out that it is difficult to produce accurate and timely figures – for instance, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publishes figures for both the number of deaths registered in a calendar year (not all of which will have occurred in that year) as well as three-year rolling averages.
The former ensures that annual figures, once produced, do not change over time, but it can also create challenges when analysing and comparing statistics. NISRA also states that:
“Annual changes in the numbers of registered deaths should therefore be interpreted with caution; three-year rolling averages [give] a better indication of change over time.”
Comparing drug-related-death statistics internationally can also be difficult.
Quantifying drug-related deaths isn’t straightforward – illustrated by NISRA’s caveats about its own figures – with the availability and quality of data varying significantly across different regions and countries.
Another issue is the lack of standardised terminology. For example, NISRA reports provide data on “drug related and drug misuse deaths”, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) details “drug poisoning deaths”, the European Union Drug Agency (EUDA) collates information on “drug-induced deaths”, while the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) in the USA focuses on “drug overdose deaths”.
Each of these categories has their own definitions, caveats and nuances. Statistical comparisons between jurisdictions are therefore not straightforward.
The term “drug related death” is the most general classification, and in the UK this categorisation includes figures on everything from homicides via poisoning, to intentional overdoses. However, “drug related death” itself lacks a universally-agreed definition, and can be interpreted differently internationally.
Altogether this makes international comparisons difficult. However, one theme that tends to run through many reports and publications concerning drug-related deaths is the warning that the figures presented are likely to be underestimated (see here, here and here – as well as this study).
With all those qualifications in mind, let’s look at the data.
- Figures
The most recent figures on local drug-related deaths from NISRA were published in January of this year but concern deaths (registered) in 2022. Its findings include that:
- Registration of drug misuse deaths almost trebled between 2011 and 2021, rising from 61 registered deaths to 175.
- NI deaths due to drug-related causes rose by 98% between 2012 and 2020 – almost doubling from 110 to 218 registered deaths.
- The most recent data from 2022 shows 154 registered drug related deaths in NI, a decrease from previous years, but still a 40% increase from a decade ago.
As mentioned before, NISRA states that using the three-year rolling average can provide a more accurate picture of trends in drug-related deaths. The graph below shows both annually registered deaths and the three-year rolling averages together:
Figure 1 – source: NISRA
The key point here is that, based on the three-year rolling averages, it is clear that annual drug-related deaths have almost doubled in the most recent decade for which there are figures – rising from around 100 per year in 2010-2012 to around 200 per year in 2020-22.
It is certainly fair to claim that “drug deaths have doubled in the past decade in NI” – which is one aspect of this claim.
What about the other strand?
- Europe
Does Northern Ireland “have some of the highest drug deaths in Western Europe outside Scotland”?
Western Europe has no single, agreed definition. But let’s see how NI compares with a wider group of nations by considering the EU as a whole.
Comparing the available statistics on “drug misuse deaths” – keeping in mind the various other ways that “drug death” can be interpreted – for NI and the EU show that NI’s death rate in 2022 was over five times higher than the most-recent EU average. According to NISRA:
“The average age-standardised drug-related death rate from 2020 – 2022 was 10.5 deaths per 100,000, a decrease of 5.5% on the 2019-2021 figure of 11.2 deaths per 100,000. The comparative figure for drug misuse averaged 8.3 deaths per 100,000 between 2020 and 2022, a decline of 6.8% on the 2019-2021 average rate of 9.3 deaths per 100,000. Prior to this, the three-year average for both drug related deaths and drug misuse has been steadily increasing since 2012.”
The figure in bold is almost four times the size of the equivalent statistic for the EU – where the latest figures indicate averages of around 2.25 drug-induced deaths per 100,000 population across the EU27 in recent years (a figure that falls to 1.98 per 100,000 for the EU27 plus Norway and Turkey).
This figure is not for any specific year but is a collation of the most-recently available stats for the relevant nations, which varies from country to country. Note also that the EU’s data concerns people aged 15-64, whereas NI’s own official statistics cover all ages – another caveat affecting the direct comparison of the different sets of data.
NI’s figure is similar to – but lower than – the most recent data on drug-induced deaths across the border in the Republic of Ireland (9.7 per 100,000 in 2020).
Ireland, Estonia (9.5) and Norway (8.6) are the only EU27+ nations with higher drug-induced death rates than Northern Ireland – and, with one eye on the claim, Norway is arguably not part of “Western Europe” and Estonia certainly is not.
Scottish figures far surpass the death rates of NI, the UK, the ROI, and the EU, standing at 27.1 per 100,000 in 2021 (compared with a UK average of 10.0 per 100,000 population – while, from that year and using that same methodology, NI recorded 11.5 deaths per 100,000).
However, Scottish drug-related deaths are recorded differently than the rest of the UK – with the National Records of Scotland obtaining toxicology information on unexplained deaths, unlike NISRA and ONS who only have access to death certificates.
Taken altogether, this evidence supports the claim. It is fair to state that Northern Ireland has “some of the highest drug deaths in Western Europe outside Scotland”.
