What is renewable energy doing for people in Northern Ireland? What more can it do? How do we make that happen?

Recent shocks in the energy market have highlighted the volatility of relying on fossil fuels and the fact that renewables, as things stand, do not come close to covering all our needs. Energy generation is important for every aspect of our lives and making good decisions as a society now is vital.

But is the best path forward clear? What factors affect how energy generation should be addressed, and how likely is it that the necessary political consensus can be gathered to make all this work?

  • Series

FactCheckNI wants to examine the possibilities of green electricity generation as well as its limitations. A greener, cheaper and more sustainable future may be possible – but it is not as simple as building more windmills until all energy is free. 

We will explore these important questions in a series of articles on renewables and their potential over the coming weeks and months. This is a pre-bunk article; aimed at supporting informed debate on the issues at stake. 

This series will ultimately delve into various aspects of renewable energy in Northern Ireland – both its potential and the real challenges it faces in terms of development. This first piece sets the scene by looking at:

  • How the local electricity market works.
  • Some of the circumstances around NI’s very solid rise in renewables usage including how Stormont’s aims for 2020 were exceeded.
  • Data on the lack of progress in the past five years.

This article focuses mainly on generating renewable energy for electricity. Decarbonising heating and transport are separate issues and areas where NI is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. 

In 2025, 61% of households used oil for heating and 36% used gas. Less than 1% of homes use heat pumps (which use pumps powered by electricity to transfer heat from the air or the ground). 5% of people own an electric car. That said, electricity is the backbone of plans for future renewable heat and transport systems.

  • Where are we now?

As with much of the world, protecting our environment and climate has grown as an issue in Northern Ireland over the past couple of decades.

Since the early 2000s renewable energy has jumped from being an afterthought (with less than 10% of generation coming from renewables) to accounting for almost half of local electricity generation by 2020.

Energy policy here is a devolved matter. In 2022, NI got its own Climate Change Act, and joined the rest of the UK in having specific goals for emissions reductions as well as its first statutory targets for renewable electricity production. Yet progress on how much of our electricity usage comes from renewables has stalled.

Energy production is a balancing act that involves keeping bills down for people and businesses, ensuring energy security in a world that seems increasingly prone to oil shocks and other upheavals, and taking real measures to care for our environment and climate.

  • Background

Northern Ireland’s energy markets, systems and infrastructure are complex and interconnected, involving both the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.

NI still depends on gas-fired power stations to provide baseload power, which is the minimum level of demand that is needed to be supplied to the electricity grid at any given time. 

Of the nearly half of electricity generated in NI in 2025 that was from renewable sources, a variety of technologies were utilised:

Figure 2 – source: NISRA

  • Connected market

Northern Ireland’s electricity system operates as part of the all-island Single Electricity Market (SEM), operated by SONI (System Operator for Northern Ireland) and Eirgrid. In the SEM, electricity is traded and dispatched across Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as a single wholesale market. SONI manages the local electricity grid.

Pricing in the energy market is not straightforward. The merit order system means that, even when wind is generating electricity for free, wholesale prices still tend to be set by the gas price. Wholesale electricity prices make up a significant chunk of people’s electricity bills but they are not the whole story. The Utility Regulator – which regulates the electricity market here – provides a useful summary of how bills are calculated.

Physically, Northern Ireland is connected to:

  • Great Britain via the Moyle Interconnector (undersea cables between NI and Scotland). 
  • RoI via three North-South interconnectors.

A large new North-South Interconnector and a further East-West interconnector are in development. The local connection to the grid in Ireland also means that the SEM is supported by the connections south of the border. The Greenlink Interconnector to Wales is set to be supplemented by the Celtic Interconnector between RoI and France, which is currently under construction.

  • Renewable growth

In 2005, only around 3% of NI’s electricity was generated from green sources.

The Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation (NIRO) came into force in April 2005 as part of a wider UK renewables support scheme. It placed a legal requirement on electricity suppliers to source a specified quantity of electricity from renewable sources.

Northern Ireland had a much lower Renewables Obligation (RO) (% target) than the rest of the UK due to its minimal renewable production and underdeveloped market. In 2009-2010, NI’s RO was just 3.5%.

Between 2005 and 2017, applications could be made to NIRO to become a renewables generator. Renewable generators were issued certificates (ROCs) for each unit of eligible electricity they produced, which they could sell to electricity suppliers as an additional revenue stream.For example, a farmer in Co. Down could apply to become a renewables generator and build a wind turbine on their farm. The farmer then could sell the energy generated to electricity suppliers like PowerNI or SSE. This system greatly incentivised the generation of renewable energy.

By 2009, renewable energy production had risen to 9.7%.

In 2010, the then Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment published Energy: A Strategic Framework for Northern Ireland, known as the Strategic Energy Framework (SEF), which included an Executive target of 40% renewable electricity consumed by 2020.

By 2015, renewables accounted for 25.4% of production. And NI hit the 40% target ahead of schedule in 2018 and, by 2020, had exceeded it (48.0%).

Figure 3 – source: Department for the Economy and NISRA

However, over the past half a decade the growth in renewables has stalled. After such success in overdelivering on renewable energy targets, diversifying electricity supplies and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, what changed?

  • Progress freezes

The rapid growth in the renewable energy sector did not last. In the year ending December 2025, renewables accounted for only 47% of gross energy consumption in NI.

There are various reasons why the NI renewables sector stalled. 

The UK government closed NIRO in 2016/2017 because it was hard to control costs. England, Scotland and Wales introduced a successor support programme, Contracts for Difference (CfD), leaving Northern Ireland as the only part of the UK without a renewables incentivisation scheme.

Industry campaigners have suggested that the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal – ‘Cash for Ash’ – poisoned the political well for energy policy at exactly the time a successor renewable energy scheme was needed. A report by Renewables NI in 2023 found that 82% of their survey respondents thought that NI was an unattractive investment location for renewables.

This stood in stark contrast to the Republic of Ireland which, in 2022, developed 20 times the amount of new renewable electricity generation compared with NI. 

  • Legislation and Executive commitments

Westminster’s Climate Change Act 2008 did not apply in NI as energy is a devolved matter.

Despite climate action being endorsed by the Executive in the Programme for Government 2008-22 and recommended by a Stormont Committee for the Environment, no legislation was forthcoming. Instead, the aim of 40% by 2020 was published in an Executive strategy.

In January 2020, the New Decade, New Approach agreement made commitments to climate change legislation. In February 2020, the Assembly declared a climate emergency.

In 2021, the Department for Economy published a new Energy Strategy, The Path to Net Zero Energy 2021 to 2030, outlining how NI could achieve net zero carbon and affordable energy by 2050.

The 2021 Energy Strategy included a target of 70% of electricity consumption to come from renewable sources by 2030. However, once again these were strategic targets and not based on legislative commitments.

This lack of statutory targets led to a groundswell movement from civil society. This culminated in NI’s first Climate Change Bill being submitted by Green Party MLA Clare Bailey. This Private Members’ Bill (PMB) was co-sponsored by MLAs from Sinn Féin, SDLP, Alliance, Ulster Unionist Party, the Green Party, People Before Profit, and two Independents.

As the Bill progressed, then Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots of the DUP opened an online consultation on a separate Climate Change (No. 2) Bill. It had less stringent targets than Ms Bailey’s PMB. Ultimately this is the version that was successful, receiving royal assent on 6 June 2022.

  • New Targets

The new Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 set a new statutory target that at least 80% of electricity consumption must come from renewable sources by 2030. The Department for the Economy is responsible for ensuring that this target is met.

The Act also set a target of at least a 100% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (net zero), with an interim target of at least a 48% reduction by 2030. There is an exception for methane which has a target of 46% by 2050. Farming is a key industry in Northern Ireland and significant political pressure was applied to mitigate some of the burden placed that was placed on the sector.

The Act also required a Climate Action Plan (still in progress), a Climate Commissioner (legislated for in 2025, but not yet appointed)  and a Just Transition Commission (still in progress).

  • How is NI Performing Against its most recent Renewables Targets?

Not well.

A 2026 NISRA report finds that for the 12-month period January 2025 to December 2025, the volume of renewable electricity generated (4,073 GWh) was equivalent to 47% of Gross Final Electricity Consumption (8,755 GWh).

The NISRA report also highlights that NI is not generating enough electricity – by renewables or fossil fuels – to cover its needs. In the 2025 calendar year, NI imported more electricity than it exported, with net imports of 578 GWh, over six times more than the 92 GWh imported in 2024.

Meanwhile, the gap between NI’s current renewable electricity consumption of 47% and the statutory target of 80% of 2030 is stark.

Can the gap of 33 percentage points be closed in the next five years after the past five years of little or no progress?

  • Projections

We could not find any official government projections of how much electricity from renewable sources will be consumed in NI in 2030.

A 2023 Report from RenewableNI, Accelerating Renewables, concluded that NI has enough incremental projects in pre-planning and consented assets to theoretically meet the 80% target. However, the report notes:

“[Assuming] current permitting and grid timelines, and applying realistic probability weightings, we believe a best-case outcome will see … less than 40% of the volume required.

After a delay to the North-South Interconnector in 2025, energy management consultancy Cornwall Insight published a forecast suggesting renewable energy generation in NI could fall as low as 35% by 2030 (although this is at the very lowest end of their possible outcomes).

  • The politics of energy: from net zero to “net stupid”

On 24 March of this year, an Assembly debate on energy security and renewables ultimately passed but with opposition from both DUP and UUP. That opposition was not fundamentally anti-renewables, but was based on significant doubts around the effectiveness of current plans. There was also general agreement that price spikes are a major issue. The Alliance Party’s Kate Nicholl, who tabled the motion, said: 

“The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has found that one fossil fuel price shock could cost the UK more than the entire additional cost of the transition to net zero, based on the energy-related costs of fossil fuel shocks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A shift to renewables could also act as a catalyst for further investment … We are behind on our renewable targets, but that is not an excuse to give up. We should not give up; we should speed up. Falling short should be a wake-up call, not a surrender.”

In response, the DUP’s Phillip Brett said there are “three key issues” in this debate: energy security, costs for households and business, “and, unfortunately, the obsession with net zero among some parties in the Chamber, regardless of the cost, regardless of the impact and, more importantly, regardless of the facts”. At the same time, Mr Brett also signalled agreement with the need to continue investing in renewables and, in particular, in infrastructure projects that will help build renewables capacity. He added that MLAs should admit that the 2030 targets for renewable electricity usage will not be met and that:

“Just two weeks ago, officials from the energy division in the Department for the Economy made clear that dispatch down rates are nearly hitting 30%. For those who do not know the technical term “dispatch down”, that is when renewable energy is produced but has to be released into the atmosphere because we are unable to fully utilise it. Currently, we are in a scenario where 30% of wind renewable energy produced here in Northern Ireland is unable to be used by the network or by consumers and is simply being released into the atmosphere.”

The UUP’s Diana Armstrong said that local reliance on home heating oil leaves NI exposed to price rises and that her party “strongly” supports increased renewables generation but that a “strategy that is centred on renewables cannot claim to enhance energy security if it fails to hit its own targets.”

SDLP MLA Mark Durkan said the DUP’s approach centred on a misconception “that renewable targets are being pursued in isolation and calls for continued reliance on fossil fuels alongside renewables” which he said got the problem “the wrong way round” because NI’s exposure to price shocks is a result of relying on fossil fuels too much and for too long.

Speeches made during the debate were full of facts and figures. There was some common ground but the debate also suggested a divergence on energy issues and a weakening of the consensus around the Climate Change Act, with significant doubts about the ability to hit the 2030 electricity targets along with more fundamental concerns about the 2050 goal for net zero.

Since that debate in March,  the global energy situation has not stabilised. The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains an international incident, and there are real risks that future price spikes could be higher and last for longer. At the same time, temperatures at Stormont have got more heated.

A short debate on energy prices on 13 April featured one DUP MLA – Jonathan Buckley – interrupting another MLA’s contribution with cries of “Net stupid”.

Where does Northern Ireland go from here?

  • Series

Stormont’s Climate Change Act involved a lot of preparation, debates and compromises. However when it received its final vote in March 2022, it passed without fuss and with the broad support of the House.

The Act signalled broad support for a long-term strategy to reduce emissions and move towards renewable energy. Fast forward four years and things are a little different.

Politics can change. You only need to look at the shift in tone between four years ago and today when it comes to net zero and renewable energy. However, on any issue, better outcomes become more likely with greater understanding both among politicians and also the public.

This is the first article in our series on renewables in Northern Ireland. Future articles will drill into the benefits and challenges of green energy; examine the infrastructure required for further investment and development; explore the limitations on the sector and ask to what extent other sources of energy – such as fossil fuels or even nuclear power – could play a role in the future.

Keep an eye out for the next article in this series in the coming weeks.