FactCheckNI is planning a short series of articles looking at the demographics of Northern Ireland, examining changes in population age, religion and place of birth.

These articles are designed to be a reference point for anyone interested in what has changed – and what has stayed the same – across the past few decades and more. 

First up in the series is people’s places of birth. Where was everyone who now lives in communities across NI born?

Highlight facts include:

  • Data from every census between 1851 and 1971 indicates that, during that time, less than one percent of the population of Northern Ireland was born outside of the UK and Ireland.
  • However, by 2001 this figure was at 1.8% and in the past two decades it rose significantly to 6.5%.
  • However, in absolute terms the total population of people living here who were born in the UK and Ireland has risen throughout that time, and risen faster (in every decade) than the total number of people born outside these islands. Since 2001, the population of Northern Ireland has grown by almost 220,000 people (with most of that growth down to an increase in the number of people living here who were born in the UK or Ireland).
  • The growth in the number of people born outside the UK and Ireland was larger in the first decade of this century than in the second. Between 2001 and 2011 this subpopulation grew by almost 51,000, while in the period 2011-21 it grew by almost 43,000.
  • Over the same two decades, the number of people living here who were born in the UK or Ireland rose by around 125,000.
  • Most of the relatively new arrivals come from elsewhere in Europe, particularly Poland and Lithuania. Overall, people born in Europe (but outside the UK and Ireland) currently make up around 3.7% of the population
  • Those born in Asia represent around 1.5% (with the most-represented nations being India, China and the Philippines) and those born in Africa around 0.5% (with the highest numbers born in South Africa, Nigeria and Zimbabwe).

Before we get into the long grass with a lot of facts and figures about where the people living in communities across Northern Ireland were born, it’s important to point out that place of birth is not the same thing as national identity. People can be born somewhere and have little or no relationship with that place.

However, they are often related and, at scale, patterns in the population’s places of birth can give us a sense of the composition of Northern Ireland now and in the past.

For more details about our changing demographics, please read on.

  • The 19th and 20th Century

Much of the information found in this article is sourced from census data. (Note that, for censuses pre-dating the formation of Northern Ireland, this article uses data for the six counties that would eventually become NI). The 2021 Census, published by NISRA, includes historical information about population places of birth going back to 1851.

Throughout the second half of the 19th Century and most of the 20th Century, the percentage of local people born outside of the UK or Ireland remained relatively constant – and tiny.

At every census from 1851 to 1971 the percentage of people born outside the UK or Ireland was less than one percent. In 1981, this figure was 1.09%, however figures from that year may be slightly skewed due to a partial Republican boycott of the census.

In 1991, a total of 17,299 people living here were born outside of the UK and Ireland – again accounting for 1.09% of the population, and this time with fewer doubts over the data.

  • The 21st Century

The almost three and a half decades since 1991 have seen more significant changes. At the 2001 census 1.8% of the Northern Ireland population were born in the UK or Ireland.

Immigration during the first two decades of the 21st century can be seen in the 2021 census results which record a rise to 6.5%.

The chart below shows the percentage of the population born in the UK or Ireland compared with the percentage of the population born elsewhere since 1851.

Figure 1 – source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)

This line graph shows that there has been a small but significant shift in demographics highlighted in the past three censuses.

The proportion of people living here born outside of the UK and Ireland has increased approximately six fold in around three decades, but still remains a very small minority overall.

Data from the past two censuses also indicates that the pace of change between 2011 and 2021 was slower than the previous decade.

  • In 2001, a total of 30,559 people born outside of the UK and Ireland were recorded as living here, accounting for 1.8% of the total population (recorded at the time as 1,685,267).
  • By 2011, the equivalent figure was 81,453, making up 4.5% of the population (1,810,863). At the last census in 2011, it was 124,286 – or 6.5% of everyone here (1,903,176).

Some interesting facts emerge from this. Growth in the population born outside the UK and Ireland was bigger both in absolute terms and as a percentage in the first decade of this century compared with the second.

Between 2001 and 2011, the number of people living here who were born outside the UK and Ireland rose by 50,894 – an increase of 166.5% in that sub-population, and amounting to 2.8% of the total population.

From 2011 to 2021, that number rose by 42,833 – an increase of 84.1% in that sub-population, amounting to 2.2% of the total population.

However, during both periods there were larger rises in the number of people living here who were born in the UK and Ireland. Between 2001 and 2011, that cohort rose by 74,702. In the next decade, it grew by 49,480.

Aside from the 1981 Census (which, as noted above, was subject to a partial boycott, placing the figures in some doubt), the overall population of Northern Ireland has risen at every census for the last century as has the number of people living here who were born in the UK and Ireland.

Towards the end of this article we will look in more detail at where those not born in the UK or Ireland did actually come into the world.

For now, however, let’s take a quick look at more local matters.

  • Great Britain and Ireland and us

So far, this article has compared figures for people born anywhere within the UK and Ireland with those born elsewhere. What about the differences between people born in Great Britain, those born in Ireland, and those born here?

Between 1991 and 2021, the percentage of the local population born in Northern Ireland fell from 92% to 87%, the percentage born in Great Britain grew from 4.1% to 4.8%, and the percentage born in the Republic of Ireland fell slightly from 2.2% to 2.1%.

Figure 2 – source: NISRA

  • Around the world

NISRA has published detailed data breaking down the birth countries of people living here since 1991.

  • Of the roughly 124,000 people living here who were born outside the UK and Ireland, by far the largest national subpopulation is people born in Poland – accounting for 22,335 people at the 2021 Census – 1.2% of the total NI population.
  • The next largest national subpopulation is those born in Lithuania, the only other nation with a local population in five figures (with 10,452 people, or 0.55% of the population).
  • The rest of Europe, combined together, represents the single biggest continental cohort (even when excluding Poland and Lithuania) and currently amounts to around 2.0% of the total population. The biggest single national cohorts are from Romania (6,612), Bulgaria (4,098) and Germany (4,053) although there are 12 different European nations, excluding the UK and Ireland, that are each the birthplace of more than a 1,000 people currently living in NI.
  • People born anywhere in Asia account for around 1.5% of the NI population at this time. The biggest individual national cohorts include India (6,910 people), China (4,134, although Hong Kong separately accounts for a further 1,981 people) and the Philippines (3,701). Based on data from the 2021 Census, Northern Ireland currently has more residents born in East Timor (2,875) than in Syria (1,811) or Pakistan (1,235).
  • Those born in Africa make up just over 0.5% of the total population, with the biggest cohorts hailing from South Africa (2,626), Nigeria (1,555) and Zimbabwe (1,164).
  • North Americans account for just under 0.5% (with the vast majority of those from the USA or Canada). The rest of the world (South America and Oceania) accounts for roughly 0.25%.

The chart below depicts a selection of these figures. For the most part, it shows how the total NI population of people born on different continents has changed over time.

South America and Oceania (where relatively few people living here were born) have been grouped together while Poland and Lithuania (where relatively large numbers of people were born) have been separated from the rest of Europe.

Figure 3 – source: NISRA

It should be noted that all of this data is based on census data and the latest figures (for 2021) are four years old. Migration in and out of Northern Ireland will have continued since then.

In particular, the dedicated resettlement schemes for people from Ukraine (set up following the Russian invasion) and those from Afghanistan (established when the Taliban returned to power) have meant rises in the number of people living here who were born in those two countries.

The 2021 Census recorded 415 Ukrainian-born and 72 Afghans in Northern Ireland. However, recent figures on the UK asylum system state that, as of 30 June this year, Northern Ireland is home to 1,992 people via the Homes for Ukraine scheme and a further 334 via the Afghan Resettlement Programme. In total, Northern Ireland is currently home to 4,861 asylum seekers.

  • More to come

We encourage anyone still wanting more to dig in further to the information available in the census data. And, if you have any specific questions, please get in touch.

Another two articles, on age and on religion, are planned for the near future – keep an eye out.