Education in NI: Does Northern Ireland have a shortage of university places for local people?

[This article was updated on 3 October 2025 with extra figures supplied by Queen’s University Belfast and to make explicit that the MaSN applies to students from Ireland as well as from Northern Ireland. The additional content is found in the subsection titled “Second response from QUB”. The rest of the article is unchanged.]

Northern Ireland have a shortage of university places for local people? Perhaps – there are certainly some reasons to believe this is accurate. However, that doesn’t mean that figures recently raised in the media by Queen’s University tell the full story about why people from NI might face challenges getting a local place.

• Applications and applicants

An article published by the Belfast Telegraph on 13 August reported the Queen’s University Vice-Chancellor Professor Sir Ian Greer saying:

“At Queen’s, we receive nearly 28,000 applications every year, with the vast majority from Northern Ireland. Yet due to the funding cap imposed here by the Executive, known as maximum student number, we are limited to offering approximately 3,500 places to students from here.

“While we are conscious of the pressures on public funding, this is a blunt and deeply frustrating cap as it is not based on the talent or potential of our students, nor the needs of our society or our growing economy. This is letting our young people down.”

Similar points were made by the QUB Vice-Chancellor in a piece he wrote for the Irish News.

Does this clearly and accurately portray a lack of local university places for applicants based in Northern Ireland, or is there a bit more to this issue?

• Context is important

There are several reasons to think that Northern Ireland has a lack of university places – for local young people in particular.

The Maximum Student Number (MaSN) mentioned by Prof. Sir Ian Greer does restrict the number of places local universities can offer to applicants from here. There is a considerable outflow of students from NI to study in universities in Great Britain, Ireland and beyond.

Apparent funding deficits in Northern Ireland’s Higher Education Institutions were acknowledged by Stormont ten years ago, and research from think tank Pivotal suggests that this has not been addressed in any significant way.

As you will see in our analysis below, there is even research from Queen’s University (QUB) itself that suggests there are only 60 places available at local universities per 100 local applicants.

However, that ratio of 60 vs 100 is much less dramatic than the numbers used by Prof. Sir Ian Greer in the interview published by the Belfast Telegraph – “nearly 28,000 applications every year, with the vast majority from Northern Ireland” but the university is “limited to offering approximately 3,500 places to students from here.”

There are two main issues with the statistics chosen by the QUB Vice-Chancellor. 

• The first is that it also includes applicants from other places and, while he states this clearly, he could simply have limited himself to only considering NI-based applications.
• The second is more complicated. Applications are not the same thing as applicants. One applicant can make many applications – to different courses at the same university, to courses at various universities all within NI, to a mixture of courses and settings, and so on.

The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) typically allows applicants to make five applications (and this number can increase in certain circumstances) and, given that one person can only attend one undergraduate course at a given time, this will lead to a significant number of unsuccessful applications that are baked in and necessary to the whole system.

Given that any one NI-based person could make five applications through UCAS, highlighting that the total number of applications received set against the number of places offered is not a clear indication of how significant any shortfall of places may be.

However, that is the statistic Prof. Sir Ian Greer opted to use when speaking with the Belfast Telegraph – and again in this platform piece he wrote for the Irish News, also published in mid August, which covers much the same ground as the first interview.

In general, the issue of university access for young people from NI is a complicated one. The think tank Pivotal published two research papers into this issue in 2021.

The first found that Northern Ireland has a significant outflow of young people – that is not matched by a similar inflow from elsewhere in the UK – and that many of these young people do not return after university. The paper gave several reasons for this – including the cap on local places for local students mentioned by Prof. Sir Ian Greer, citing the effects of the Maximum Student Number (MaSN).

The second paper involved asking young people who have left why they did so, and found several reasons for this – some of which are linked to the caps on student numbers, but many of which are not.

So there are several reasons to believe that the QUB Vice-Chancellor is ultimately raising a valid point about the opportunities for local people in Northern Irish Higher Education – however, the contextual statistics provided by him do not necessarily get to the heart of the matter. Let’s take a look.

• NI undergraduates in the UK

The most recent data on student enrolments within the UK can be found published by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). It indicates that there are currently 48,535 students originally from Northern Ireland who are studying in the UK, of which:

• 36,500 are in Northern Ireland
• 9050 in England
• 2490 in Scotland 
• 495 in Wales

Figure 1 – source: HESA

This covers enrolment across all higher education providers within Northern Ireland, including Ulster University, Queens University and Stranmillis University College, St Mary’s University College and the Open University.

Most data on applications to higher education is taken from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) and will be explored subsequently. However, UCAS data only includes data on applications to Ulster University, Queens University and Stranmillis University College.

A lot of the subsequent data in this article comes with this caveat, although this still covers the bulk of all NI students. The latest HESA data indicates that St Mary’s currently has a total of 1,015 students enrolled and, while the Open University has 4,595 NI-based students within its total enrolment of over 133,000, it is a special case that perhaps sits outside general consideration of this issue.

The Open University (OU) is known for remote study along flexible timelines and has a focus on lifelong learning. It does not offer the typical undergraduate experience and arguably exists as more of a complement to, rather than competition for, the more common paths towards a first degree.

• Applications vs applicants

The most important distinction to make when considering this issue, and the illustrative statistics cited by Prof. Sir Ian Greer, is the one between applicants and applications.

Each university applicant is a single, specific individual. However, one applicant can apply for several courses (UCAS currently allows five distinct applications, with extras permitted in certain circumstances).

Each of these applications could be for different courses at the same university. Each could be to a different university, and these universities could be in different nations or regions of the UK. And, of course, someone living in the UK is also free to apply to universities around the world.

Applicants and applications are not the same thing and cannot be used interchangeably.

While Prof. Sir Ian Greer didn’t explicitly compare 28,000 applications with offering 3,500 places, the proximity of the two statistics invited readers to make an implicit comparison between a very large number and a much smaller figure.

A clearer, more meaningful statistical comparison would be between the annual number of single applicants to QUB (and/or to all HEIs in Northern Ireland) set against the number of successful local applicants. Although even that would come with caveats.

Not every unsuccessful application is a disappointment. A specific person might have their heart set on a particular course at a particular university (which amounts to one application), make several further applications as a back up. If those back-up options lead to no offers but that person gets onto the course they actually wanted, they are likely to be pretty happy with how things have gone.

All this makes it hard to draw clean conclusions about the experience of applicants from data focused on applications – and even figures comparing total individual applicants to successful applicants within a specific HEI require qualification.

• Applications to universities in Northern Ireland

According to data from UCAS (so, as per the above, but excluding St Mary’s and OU etc), in 2024 there were 67,675 applications in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) within Northern Ireland.

Of those, 50,545 were made in Northern Ireland, just over 4,000 came from elsewhere in the UK, and the rest were international applications (including Ireland). These applications, alongside where the application originated, are in the table below, which features equivalent data from the previous ten years.

Figure 2 – source: UCAS 2024 data

There has been some fluctuation in total application numbers. There has been a decline in the number of local applications (or perhaps there was a spike in 2015-17 and this tailed off thereafter) but there is no guarantee this is significant. The number of international applications appears to have risen substantially in the past couple of years but otherwise there has been no clear and obvious pattern and, regardless, a thorough data analysis would be required to draw any firm conclusions.

Of the 67,675 applications made to HIEs within Northern Ireland, 35,360 of them were made to Ulster University – and 28,280 of the applications received by Ulster University came from students in Northern Ireland.

Figure 3 (UU) – source: UCAS 2024 data

In the same year, QUB received 29,800 applications, with 19,405 of these made locally.

Figure 4 (QUB) – source: UCAS 2024 data

Note that Prof. Sir Ian Greer, despite specifically talking about the prospects for NI-based applicants to secure a local university place, said that QUB receives “nearly 28,000 applications every year, with the vast majority from Northern Ireland.”

This is correct but, given the context in which he was speaking, it would have been clearer to focus on the specific numbers of local applications. In the past ten years, this has been between 19,405 and 23,335, with an average of 21,425.

But how many applications (remembering that this isn’t the same as applicants) were successful?

(Note that in their response, outlined below, to FactCheckNI’s initial queries, QUB offered to provide data on the number of unique applicants. We will update this article when those figures are shared.)

• Successful applicants to local universities

There were 5,890 successful applicants admitted to Ulster University in 2024, with 5,065 from Northern Ireland. QUB admitted 4,995 applicants last year, with 3,890 from NI. These figures, plus equivalent data covering the past decade, are in the tables below. The first covers successful applications to UU:

Figure 5 (UU) – source: UCAS 2024 data

The second covers successful applications at QUB:

Figure 6 (QUB) – source: UCAS 2024 data

Going back to the original quotation from Prof. Sir Ian Greer, the table above shows that, in each of the ten years from 2015-24, QUB admitted between 3,575 and 4,590 students who were living in NI when they applied.

The average number of successful local applicants for those years was 3,877 – perhaps a little bit higher than “approximately 3,500” as stated by the university Vice-Chancellor, but it’s in the same ballpark.

To once again highlight the key point in all this, the number of applications is not the same as the number of unique applicants.

It is almost certain that 19,405 people in NI did not apply to study at Queens University last year. Instead, 19,405 applications were received by Queens University to study, but there are likely to be many cases of single applicants making several applications. When considering the Northern Ireland picture overall, there will also be many individuals who apply for courses at both QUB and UU.

A much more useful comparison would be between the total number of applicants based in NI that apply to universities here, and the number who successfully gain a local place.

Thankfully, Queen’s University Belfast is here to help.

• Research

In its Integrated Annual Report 2018-19, QUB cites independent research that it commissioned which found that, for every 100 home applicants to local universities, there are only 60 places available.

It says further that this is a much bigger squeeze than local applicants face in Great Britain, with 90 places in Scotland for every 100 applicants, 120 in England, and 130 in Wales. The report states:

“An independent study commissioned by the University found that 60% of demand for university places from students from NI is being met locally, and therefore, over 13,000 Northern Ireland students are pursuing their studies in other parts of the UK.”

These numbers from 2018/9 – 60 places for every 100 applicants – do suggest a shortfall in available places at that time, and indicate pressure on local institutions as well as a limit on the potential for local applicants to study at home, should they wish.

However, 60 places for every 100 applicants is much less dramatic than 3,500 places for 28,000 applications.

A more recent 2021 report by Pivotal, the NI-based think tank, examined apparent struggles within NI to keep local young people who are doing well educationally based here. Retaining and regaining talent in Northern Ireland cited the QUB statistic (60 places for every 100 applicants) in a research paper which also states:

“Northern Ireland has a net outflow of thousands of students each year, most of which do not return, with limited inflow of new students…

“The Department for the Economy recognised the need for reform of HE funding in their forward-thinking ‘Big Conversation’ consultation in 2015. The consultation indicated that significant changes were needed in HE to address deficits in funding… However, there are no published outcomes from this consultation and no steps appear to have been taken.”

Pivotal’s work also paints a picture of how many students Northern Ireland loses to other parts of the UK, and how many it gains back, which again shows that NI is short on student places (although the infographic below suggests that it is not only NI-based students affected by that shortfall, given the much larger inflows to both Wales and Scotland).

Figure 7 – source: Pivotal

In his interviews, Prof. Sir Ian Greer mentioned the Maximum Student Numbers (MaSN) policy. Pivotal’s research paper also goes into detail on this. So, what is it and what does it do?

• MaSN

The Maximum Student Number (MaSN) is essentially a cap on the number of places for Northern Irish students at universities within Northern Ireland. It was introduced in 1994 and is reviewed each year, reflective of budgetary resources, and is by design an obvious restriction on the number of positions available to NI students within NI.

FactCheckNI could not find a straightforward breakdown of what the details of the MaSN is now or has been over time. We asked the Department for the Economy what the MaSN has been in each of the past five years, and whether it was one single figure that applies to all universities in totality, such that if one institution accepts fewer applicants that allows other settings to enrol more, or whether UU and QUB both get an individual set application. DfE replied by saying:

“The table below details the maximum number of full-time undergraduate students set by the Department for individuals with home status for Ulster University and Queen’s University Belfast for the last five years.

“An individual maximum student number is set for full-time undergraduate students with home status for Ulster and Queen’s as detailed in the table above.”

Prof. Sir Ian Greer has previously highlighted this as a major barrier to economic innovation and equality within NI. The MaSN has been described as an “economic handbrake” by MPs (see this BBC News article from 2022).

Pivotal highlighted the effects of the MaSN policy on places for local students, but it is worth noting their research also looks further reasons why applicants might opt to leave NI, including higher entrance requirements within NI (although this itself may be exacerbated by the MaSN), issues with community relations, and the broadly better economic opportunities that can be found in other parts of the UK.

The local think tank produced a follow-up paper later in 2021, Should I stay or should I go? Reasons for leaving Northern Ireland for study or work, which examined all the reasons local applicants leave – and indeed might want to leave – NI for study.

Its findings only add to the complex picture of how and why local university applicants leave to study elsewhere. While the paper does mention the MaSN, and its outworkings, as one aspect that perhaps drives more young people to leave NI, there are plenty of other reasons put forward about why many local people seek higher education elsewhere. These include:

• Poor community relations and NI’s history of social division.
• Political instability and ineffective local government.
• A broader range of options and a better student experience available elsewhere – as well as the relative lack of available spaces locally.
• Close connections between university courses elsewhere and high-quality undergraduate placements, “along with the greater range of graduate jobs, higher salaries and opportunities for progression available elsewhere.”

Further details about where local young people end up after leaving school can be found in data published by the Department of Education.

The most recent leaver figures, which cover 2023-24, show that 40.3% of local young people headed to higher education after school (these figures, to be clear, may account for most people starting university – but not necessarily all of them).

Of those 9,561 young people, 75.6% (7,229 people in total) went to university locally, 22.2% (2,124) went somewhere in Great Britain, and 2.2% (208) went somewhere outside the UK.

• Response

FactCheckNI contacted Queen’s University to ask them about the figures they used and whether they painted a clear picture of any pressure on local university places for local people.

Those questions and their responses are below:

Has QUB knowledge of any more recent research into the ratio between annual number of NI-based applicants for university and the total number of available places at 1) NI-based universities and 2) QUB in particular?

The figures we can provide will only be relevant to number of applicants and places at Queen’s. These figures will be based on the actual number applications received and the number of places available. The piece was written over summer before A-Level results day based on averages from the years previous. We can provide more up to date figures for this year – this will be actual figures rather than research. 

For statistics on NI wide and number of places, it might be useful to visit this data set provided by Department for Economy: Higher education enrolments | Department for the Economy

They provide NI stats on this but there is approx. a two year delay before figures are published. 

If so, where can this research be found and what does it say?

We have provided figures based on actual numbers of applications and places rather than research. 

If not, is there any reason to believe there has been a significant shift away from that ratio in the past couple of years, or is that 60/100 comparison still useful?

N/A

Does QUB accept that, while there may be some merit in comparing the average number of applications the university receives in a year with the average number of places it is able to offer NI-based applicants, that this is not the clearest or most precise basis to measure or understand any ongoing squeeze in local availability for NI-based university applicants who want to remain in Northern Ireland for study?

The article written for local media was used to highlight the high level of applications Queen’s receives to illustrate the demand for the range of courses versus the low number of places / student numbers that we can accommodate as a result of the MaSN cap i.e. the unique funding model in NI. There is a clear distinction between the number of ‘applications’ and the number of ‘places’ and no claim to directly equate applications and applicants. 

We would be interested to hear how you would consider we make this point more effectively. 

We can also provide further breakdown on the number of unique applications i.e. the number of applicants received if helpful? 

FactCheckNI has followed up with QUB to ask for the total number of applicants who have applied for undergraduate courses at the university in each of the past ten years and we will update this article with those figures as appropriate.

• Second response from QUB [This section was added following addtional information from QUB on 3/10/25]

On 3 October 2025, QUB replied to our request 

They also wanted us to make explicit that students originating from the rest of Ireland also contribute to the MaSN cap, alongside Northern Ireland. Although this article focuses on students from NI, and the fact that the MaSN limits local applications, that is still important context.

QUB supplied us with the number of individual undergraduate applicants to the university from both NI and RoI in each of the past five years:

Figure 8 – source: QUB (via email)

As you can see, these numbers are significantly lower than the 28,000 total applications received per year, as mentioned by Prof. Sir Ian Greer. However, they are still much higher than the total number of places QUB is able to offer each year.

As outlined above, the average number of successful applications to the university from NI in each of the past five years is 3,877 – whereas the average number of annual NI-based applicants is over 10,000.

This again provides an illustration, supported by the various research mentioned in this article, of a shortfall in local university places for local people.

These figures do not tell the whole story – for instance, many of these individual applicants may also have applied to Ulster University and many who didn’t go to QUB may have ended up at UU, and vice versa. However, for each year in which we have all necessary figures the total number of local individual applicants to QUB on its own exceeds the entire NI-based intake of both UU and QUB combined.

QUB also provided us with five years of data on the total number of applications from both NI and RoI combined, which are as follows:

Figure 9 – source: QUB (via email) 

• Overall

The QUB Vice-Chancellor was not claiming to offer a full and comprehensive assessment of why local people might end up leaving NI for higher education. Instead, he was putting one aspect which he sees as an issue under the spotlight.

However, the comparison made between total applications and the ultimate local enrolment is not a helpful one, given that individual people can themselves make several applications.

That said, the MaSN places explicit limits on local university places and, based on all the above, it seems perfectly fair to suggest that the cap on spaces puts extra pressure on the broad availability of local university spaces for people in NI.

It is also important to keep in mind that there are other factors around why so many people leave here for study – including that many of them want to leave for reasons unrelated to local availability.