• Between 2022 and 2023, trade in goods and services from NI to GB increased by 12.4% (to £17.12bn) while GB-NI trade rose by 16.2% (to £16.20bn).
  • FactCheckNI was unable to find any data for cross-border trade on goods and services in 2001. Figures regarding goods alone indicate the total value of trade between NI and RoI in 2001 to be around £1.93bn. Data regarding cross-border services was only available from 2011.
  • The value of trade in goods only in 2015 was indeed at a similar level ,and by 2022 trade in goods was worth £8.69bn. Furthermore, figures for trade of both goods and services also show significant growth between 2015 and 2022 
  • However, context is important. All these figures were shared in support of the 2023 Windsor Framework, and to argue it has had a positive impact on NI’s ability to trade.
  • While the figures are accurate (with some caveats), this does not amount to evidence about what effect, if any, the introduction of the Windsor Framework has had on trade.
  • There is good evidence that trade volumes between NI and the rest of the UK and Ireland were on the increase in the few years before the establishment of the framework. Indeed, one of the years of trade volumes raised in support of the framework was 2022, while the framework itself was not agreed until 2023.

In a debate in the Assembly on 8 December, Sinn Féin MLA Pádraig Delargy claimed:

“The Windsor framework has protected our unique dual market access. Businesses here retain the ability to trade freely with the EU and Britain, an advantage that no other region enjoys. That access is drawing investment, supporting jobs and giving firms confidence about the future. If we look at NISRA figures from 2023, we see that sales between the North and Britain rose in that year by 12.4%. Similarly, purchases between the North and Britain rose by 16.2% in that time. When we look back as far as 2001, we see that cross-border trade then was valued at £1.9 billion, and it was at a similar level in 2015. However, that has grown dramatically since the Windsor framework regulations were put in place. In 2022, that trade was valued at over £7 billion a year. The evidence is clear: the Windsor framework is helping our businesses to grow, protecting our jobs and strengthening our economy.”

There are a few different figures involved in this claim:

  1. Sales from NI to GB rose by 12.4% in 2023.
  2. In the same year, NI purchases from GB rose by 16.2%
  3. Cross border trade in 2001 was valued at £1.9bn and held a “similar” value in 2015.
  4. In 2022, that trade was valued at over £7bn.

Overall these figures are supported by evidence – with some caveats.

The first two aspects align entirely with trade figures produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

These official data show that the total value of goods and services sold from Northern Ireland to Great Britain increased by 12.4% in 2023 (and were worth £17.12bn, up from £15.24bn the previous year).

In the same year, the total value of both goods and services purchased in Northern Ireland from Great Britain increased by 16.2% in 2023 (to £16.20bn, up from £13.94bn).

Note that economics is a complicated business. This fact check is focused on whether the statistics quoted by Mr Delargy are accurate. However, it is important to acknowledge that he was discussing those stats within the context of the Windsor Framework.

It is true that the framework was first implemented in 2023 – although not in its entirety, the details of this UK-EU agreement were phased in over time – so some of the central numbers examined in this article coincide with these early days of the framework.

However, the degree to which the Windsor Framework was responsible for any increase in trade is another matter. It would require a full and rigorous academic analysis to determine or estimate any cause and effect.

What about the third and fourth aspects about cross-border trade?

In some ways, this is more complicated. FactCheckNI was unable to find data for cross-border trade in both goods and services before 2011. (As always, if you know of any, please get in touch.)

However, figures are available for trade solely in goods before then. According to data from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO), the value of that trade in 2001 was around £1.93bn. This matches the first figure in the third aspect of this claim – and is the only bottom-line figure we were able to locate – but it does not measure the total value of cross-border trade because it excludes services.

Looking solely at goods (to allow for a more sensible comparison, albeit one that does not factor in inflation), the value of cross-border trade in 2015 was around £2.06bn. It is fair to describe this as similar to the 2001 figure of £1.93bn.

This provides evidence to support the third aspect of the claim, with the very important caveat that this only applies to trade in goods.

Regarding the fourth aspect of the claim, in 2022 cross-border trade in goods alone was worth £8.69bn, which supports the fourth aspect of the claim that such trade was valued at over £7bn.

In this case, however, any links to the Windsor Framework are moot, given the framework was not agreed until February 2023 and its gradual implementation did not begin until March 2023.

Figures for trade in both goods and services exist from 2011 onwards. To look at some of the years mentioned explicitly by the claimant, we can see that total cross-border trade in goods and services was worth £5.29bn in 2015, £9.88bn in 2022 (meaning there was significant growth pre-dating the framework), and £12.4bn in 2023.

This indicates that there was a very large increase of 26% in the first year the framework was implemented, but it is also true to say this increase occurred during an established period of growth, represents a single annual datapoint, and that implementation of the framework only began three months into the year (and this implementation was only partial, with new elements of the framework brought into effect in subsequent years).

So, while the numbers examined by this claim are broadly correct (with the caveat about the absence of services in the figures for cross-border trade), the degree to which this can be linked (positively or negatively) to the Windsor Framework should be treated with caution.

For more information, read on.

  • Source

FactCheckNI contacted Mr Delargy about this claim. He replied with a link to statistics from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) concerning NI trade with Great Britain. No details were provided to support the claims related to cross-border trade.

  • Windsor Framework

The Windsor Framework was an agreement reached between the UK and EU on 27 February 2023 to adapt to issues relating to the border and trade with regards to Northern Ireland’s jurisdictional position within the UK – and, thus, outside of the EU following Brexit – and also its geographical location on the island of Ireland, including its largely friction-free border with the Republic of Ireland.

Implementation of the framework began on 24 March 2023 – but didn’t happen all at once, instead being phased in over time. A timeline of some of the changes is available here.

  • NI-GB figures

NISRA publishes figures about NI trade. The Overview of Northern Ireland Trade with Great Britain uses “a range of data sources” such as Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics (NIETS – which comes from NISRA’s own data portal) and Economic Accounts.

Trade figures published in May last year show the total value of both goods and services purchased in Northern Ireland from Great Britain increased by 16.2% from £13.94 billion in 2022 to £16.20 billion in 2023.

At the same time, the value of goods and services sold from Northern Ireland to Great Britain increased by 12.4% from £15.24 billion in 2022 to £17.12 billion in 2023.

These figures are exactly as quoted by Mr Delargy and provide evidence to support the first and second aspects of the claim.

The chart below shows data on trade between NI and GB since 2011 (although data on purchases from GB is only available since 2013).

Figure 1 – source: NISRA

There are seemingly different patterns with each of the four figures here. NI purchases of goods were broadly steady up to 2021 but have risen in the past couple of years. There was a significant drop in sales of goods to Great Britain from 2016 to 2018; however this started to reverse from 2020 onwards.

NI purchases of services have remained fairly steady across the whole timeline, while sales of services have crept up over time.

  • Cross-border trade

Data on trade between NI and the Republic of Ireland can be found on InterTradeIreland, which itself sources data from RoI’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) and NISRA.

In 2001, the total value of cross-border trade in goods only was €3.10bn (with €1.23bn of that as North-South trade and €1.86bn South-North). In 2001, the exchange rate was around €1.6087 for every £1, meaning cross-border trade was worth around £1.93bn.

This matches the figure quoted by Mr Delargy however this does not include the value of any trade in services.

FactCheckNI was unable to locate any data regarding trade in services between NI and RoI that predates 2011, which is the earliest year that both NISRA and InterTradeIreland publish figures on services too (if anyone does know where such data can be found, please get in touch). More on that shortly. First, let’s focus on goods.

In 2015, the total value of cross-border trade in goods was €2.84bn (with €1.09bn North-South and €1.74 South-North), which is a lower cash amount in Euros. However, the exchange rate in 2015 was around €1.3782 for every £1, so this trade was £2.06bn – so, slightly higher in cash terms. Please note that we have not factored in any inflationary effects here.

Regardless, Mr Delargy’s point was that the total value was “similar” and this point tallies whether measured in Sterling or Euros.

That does provide some evidence in support of the third aspect of this check – with the necessary caveat that these figures for cross-border trade cover goods and exclude services.

What about trade value in 2022? According to InterTradeIreland, cross-border trade that year was worth €10.20bn (including €5.33bn North-South, and €4.88bn South-North) which, based on an annual exchange rate of €1.1732 = £1 was worth £8.69bn.

Mr Delargy’s claim was that cross-border trade in 2022 was worth over £7bn and the data here provide a figure significantly higher than that.

Annual figures for cross-border trade in goods can be seen in the chart below:

Figure 2 – source: InterTradeIreland

As the InterTradeIreland portal itself states:

“Cross-border trade in goods was valued at €3.1/£1.9 billion in 2001. In 2015, it was worth €2.8/£1.9 billion. However, since 2015 growth in cross-border trade has increased dramatically; in 2022 it was valued at €10.2/£7.0 billion. In 2024 was worth €10.6/£9 billion.”

Note that any small differences in value between the figures in the quotation here and those outlined above are explained by a combination of rounding errors and any variation in exchange rate figure used – we used annual exchange rate figures compiled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, to restate an important caveat once again – all the figures above only cover goods. There is more to trade than just goods.

  • What about services?

FactCheckNI was unable to locate any pre-2011 data regarding cross-border trade in services. However, we can still look at two of the years mentioned by Mr Delargy – 2015 and 2022 – to try and place his remarks in some context.

In this case, InterTradeIreland lifts its figures directly from NISRA’s NIETS portal.

In 2015, the total value of cross-border trade in both goods and services was around £5.29bn (with £3.33bn North-South and £1.96bn South-North – note that these figures are in Sterling already, presumably because the original data source was NISRA rather than the CSO).

In 2022, the total value was £9.88bn (£6.35 North-South and £3.53bn South-North) – meaning that, as with figures focused solely on goods, there is another large increase in trade volume between 2015 and 2022.

One other consideration about these figures is how they fit in context. Mr Delargy was speaking in support of the Windsor Framework, which was agreed in February 2023 and the gradual implementation of which began in March 2023.

If we look at Figure 2, above, we see that cross-border trade volumes (in goods) were broadly flat from 2000 to 2016 but increased substantially from 2016 onwards, with over a threefold increase in the value of cross-border trade from 2016 to 2024. However, this tripling of value had basically occurred by 2022 – which predates the Windsor Framework.

However, it should also be pointed out that total cross-border trade in 2023 – covering both goods and services – increased significantly when compared with 2022. According to InterTradeIreland:

“In 2023 total trade in goods and services was £12.4/€14.3 billion, 26% increase from 2022. NST was valued at £8.7/€10 billion and SNT was valued at £3.8/€4.3 billion.

“Total trade in goods was £9.8/€11.3 billion, 30% increase from 2022. Total trade in services was £2.6/€3 billion, 12% increase from 2022.”

Overall, to restate a central point of this check once again, it is not possible from the raw numbers to easily unpick the value (or not) of the Windsor Framework and its total effects on cross-border trade.

It is correct to say that trade in 2023, the year gradual implementation of the framework began, was much higher than in 2022. On the other hand, this merely continued a pattern of growth that began several years prior.

Figures for cross-border trade in goods and services since 2011 can be found in the chart below:

Figure 3 – source: NISRA via InterTradeIreland

  • Other context

Data on cross border trade are compiled by various bodies and use different methodologies, so the exact numbers can vary depending on which sources are used (for instance, one other good source of trade data is the UK Trade Info portal from HMRC).

However, based on FactCheckNI’s research the same trends can be observed across all of the data on trade between Northern Ireland and both the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.

To combine some of the data used above, and some extra information covering the globe, we can look at the pattern in external sales of goods (so excluding all purchase data) from NI to GB, RoI, the EU excluding RoI, and the rest of the world:

Figure 4 – source: NISRA

An increase in cross border trade has been the biggest driver of increased external sales in Northern Ireland over the last decade, but sales to Great Britain have been the largest category over the period – and this trade itself has hit new heights following a significant slump between 2016 and 2018.

Furthermore, the increase in outward trade across the land border seems to have begun in 2021 (predating the Windsor Framework)