• According to a PSNI statistical bulletin, police received 1,288 calls between 20 December and 2 January inclusive – an average of 92 calls per day.
  • It is fair to say that 92 calls per day is significantly higher than 80 which the same bulletin said was the average for the year.
  • However, these interim figures do not necessarily meet the standard of PSNI’s Official Statistics (which tend to report numbers of domestic abuse incidents and crimes recorded, rather than domestic abuse calls received).

During a question session with the Justice Minister in the Assembly on 13 January, SDLP MLA Justin McNulty claimed that:

“[In] the two weeks from 20 December 2024 to 2 January 2025, police here received 1,288 domestic abuse calls, which is 92 calls every day and is significantly higher than the daily average across the rest of the year.”

This claim is supported by evidence.

A statistical release from the PSNI noted that it received 1,288 calls about domestic abuse over those two weeks, which is 92 calls per day.

The same release said that on average over the whole year it received 80 such calls per day. It is fair enough to say that 92 is significantly higher than 80 (up 15% over this short period), and therefore the claim is accurate.

However, it’s worth noting that the Christmas statistical bulletin isn’t a replacement for the official statistics data series on Domestic Abuse Incidents and Crimes Recorded which takes longer to produce and goes through more rigorous quality assurance checks prior to the publication as Official Statistics. The next quarterly update covering the 12 months to the end of December 2024 will be published on 27 February 2025. FactCheckNI contacted the PSNI with questions about their Christmas figures but were told to make a Freedom of Information request.

  • Source

FactCheckNI contacted Mr McNulty, who pointed us in the direction of this PSNI press release issued on 10 January which says that “[police] were called 1,228 times about domestic abuse over festive period” (running from 20 December to 2 January).

The release also quotes Detective Chief Superintendent Lindsay Fisher of the Police Service’s Public Protection Branch, who said:

“It saddens me every year, when Christmas time approaches, that the reality for so many is that it isn’t a happy, enjoyable time for their family. 

“Usually we see reports of domestic abuse increase at this time of the year and although this year’s figures are substantially more than the daily average, we are seeing the numbers of reports for the festive period begin to decrease…

“It must never be forgotten that behind each one of these numbers is a victim who, statistics suggest, has endured up to 35 incidents of abuse before coming forward to report.”

  • Figures

The figure of 1,228 calls quoted in the press release is slightly different than the number in Mr McNulty’s claim (1,288). However, that number in the press release is actually a typo.

This statistical bulletin, published the day before the press release, makes clear that the number of calls the PSNI received in relation to domestic abuse over the Christmas period was indeed 1,288.

Figure 1 – source: PSNI

Mr McNulty’s assertion that police received 1,288 calls over the Christmas period is supported by evidence.

He is also correct that this is 92 calls a day – 1,288/14 = 92 exactly.

Police figures suggest that the average daily call rate over the holidays was lower than the equivalent period in recent years.

What about Mr McNulty’s comparison? Is 92 calls per day “significantly higher than the daily average across the rest of the year”?

  • Compare and contrast

The statistical bulletin also says that:

“The daily average number of calls (92) was higher than the daily average across both the month of December (84) and across the whole year (80). This same pattern has been seen over the last ten years.”

Is 92 calls per day significantly higher than the annual average of 80? In some ways that’s just a matter of opinion – however, regardless, it’s not a totally unfair thing to say.

Aside from definitions of “statistical significance”,  the term ‘significance’ also has an everyday meaning which in this case amounts to whether you think this is noteworthy or meaningful.

Based on all this, Mr McNulty’s claim is supported by evidence.

However, while that’s enough detail to evaluate the original claims, there are some further wrinkles. Anyone who really wants to get into the weeds should keep reading.

  • More comparing and contrasting

The PSNI’s statistical bulletin contains some qualifiers around the use of its data:

“While domestic abuse calls for service are an up-to-date source of information, they are subject to different recording practices from the Domestic Abuse Incident and Crime figures which are published by PSNI’s Statistics Branch as Official Statistics…

“The official statistics data series includes domestic abuse incidents that have been identified through sources other than a call for service to police. It also excludes calls for service that were initially identified as potential domestic abuse but which turned out not to meet the domestic abuse definition.

“In order to incorporate these requirements and improve completeness and accuracy the official statistics data has a longer processing time. This management information is less complete and should only be used to identify an early indication of trends.

“Analysis of the ten calendar years 2015 to 2024 shows that the number of domestic abuse incidents recorded by police is higher than the number of domestic abuse calls received by police by a ratio of between 1.03 and 1.13. This should be taken into consideration when using the figures in this release.”

This means the Christmas statistical bulletin is not deemed to be Official Statistics.

The latest Official Statistics FactCheckNI found concerning reports of domestic abuse was the quarterly Domestic Abuse Incidents and Crimes Recorded by the Police in Northern Ireland. The latest version is the Update to 30th September 2024, which was published last November. Figures for the year ending 31 December 2024 will be published at the end of February.

Some further information about what it means to be Official Statistics can be found in that report, as well as some broader details about reports of domestic abuse in Northern Ireland.

In particular, it’s worth noting that for the year ending 30 September 2024, the PSNI recorded 31,043 incidents of domestic abuse – which is around 85 per day.

This statistic – counting records of domestic abuse incidents – is similar to the Christmas bulletin’s figures on domestic abuse calls, but fundamentally they are not the same.

It is also worth reiterating the observation made by DCS Fisher in the police press release quoted above that “behind each one of these numbers is a victim who, statistics suggest, has endured up to 35 incidents of abuse before coming forward to report.”

And as the PSNI note in the introduction to their most recent set of Official Statistics: “As these figures only relate to those domestic abuse incidents reported to the police, they only provide an indication of the true extent of domestic abuse.”

FactCheckNI asked the PSNI press office to clarify the figures behind their statement that “this year’s figures are substantially more than the daily average”. However, no explanation was immediately available and we were requested to make a Freedom of Information request. We will update this fact check when a response is made.