- According to an analysis by the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, in 2022 in NI a total of 1,434 people died due to delays in emergency departments.
- The worst year of the Troubles – 1972 – saw a total of 472 deaths, the majority of which were civilians.
- Three times 472 equals 1,416, meaning the claim is factually accurate.
- It’s also useful to note that this comparison is an example of emotive framing. Both the facts (the findings of the RCEM’s analysis, and Troubles’ deaths in 1972) represent previously-known information.
On 1 June, an article published by The Economist claimed that:
“According to the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, three times as many people died due to delays in emergency departments in 2022 as did during the worst year of the Troubles.”
This is accurate.
An analysis by the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) found that, in 2022, delays in emergency departments in Northern Ireland led to 1,434 premature deaths. FactCheckNI verified this earlier this year.
The year with the highest number of violent deaths during the Troubles was 1972, when around 472 people were killed in events linked to the conflict.
3 x 472 = 1,416, which is slightly less than the number of early deaths identified in the RCEM analysis.
More details about those calculations are below. However, this article also contains a small section on emotive framing – and how it isn’t necessarily a good or a bad thing and how, on an individual basis, it can deepen understanding of an issue (or just confuse matters).
- RCEM
What exactly has the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) said about deaths caused by delays in emergency departments in Northern Ireland over the course of 2022?
In short, RCEM’s calculations found that in 2022 1,434 people who attended an emergency department (ED) and were subsequently admitted to hospital died as a result of delays they experienced while in ED – and would otherwise not have died in the 30 days following admission.
Is this calculation correct? Yes – FactCheckNI checked that specific claim in March and rated it as Accurate with Consideration. All the relevant analysis is here.
What about the worst year of the Troubles?
- 1972
The worst year for deaths during the Troubles was 1972. According to the CAIN Archive:
“472 people died as a result of the violence in Northern Ireland, marking this the worst year of violence since the onset of ‘the Troubles’ in 1969. The majority of these people (321) were civilians.”
Other estimates for deaths that year are slightly different – with sources like the CAIN-hosted Malcolm Sutton Index of Deaths from the Conflict in Ireland putting the figure at 480 (which includes Troubles-related deaths in in the Republic of Ireland) while this report from Channel 4 claims it was 497 – but for the purposes of this fact check we will use the figure from CAIN.
3 x 472 = 1,416, which is just shy of the RCEM’s figure of 1,434 for delay-related deaths in 2022.
Based on that, the claim is backed by evidence.
- Comment on context
In Northern Ireland, 1972 is synonymous with the worst of the Troubles and so the worst part of our collective history.
Linking that to a discussion about the current state of the health service is an example of using emotive framing, which isn’t necessarily a good thing or a bad thing. It can be used to get people to reassess old data in new ways. Putting certain details in a new context can provoke fresh or different emotional reactions. It can also help people relate to large numbers more readily.
In this case, consider the following two statements:
- In 2022, delays in Northern Ireland’s emergency departments led to 1,434 deaths.
- In 2022, delays in Northern Ireland’s emergency departments killed three times as many people as the worst year of the Troubles.
As consumers of information, it can be useful to reflect on how you individually react to two statements that factually say the same thing but present those facts in different ways.
Is it easier to understand the extent of those extra deaths by comparing it to some of the darkest times in NI history? Does it instead cloud your understanding? Does it invoke an emotional response? Or is the effect more complicated?
Read those two bullet points again and think about how you feel.
There isn’t necessarily a correct or appropriate or proper emotion reaction – but maybe you’ll learn something about yourself. FactCheckNI’s Toolkit lists “How do you feel?” as one of the key questions to ask when confronted with a statistic or someone’s claim.
In this specific case, maybe a comparison with 1972 helps you understand the scale of the consequences of ongoing shortcomings in the health service? Or is some nuance lost in comparing violent deaths during a period of social and political conflict with the structural results of rising demand for health services and significant budgetary pressures set against a backdrop of political and administrative decisions made (or, perhaps, not made) in the past decade or more?
Emotive framing is generally good at capturing people’s attention. Overall, by understanding how it works, we can individually try to get the best out of it when we see it (increased personal understanding of an issue/issues) and avoid potential negative effects (like confusion).
