FactCheckNI is researching and publishing a short series of articles exploring the demographics of Northern Ireland, examining changes in population age, religion and place of birth.

These articles are designed to be a reference point for anyone interested in what has changed – and what has stayed the same – across the past few decades and more. 

The first piece considered where the people who live here were born. In this article, we look at the ageing population and point readers to extra information and projections about what this might mean in future, particularly in relation to health and social care and to pensions.

Highlight facts include:

  • In the early 1970s there were nearly three times as many children under 10 than people aged 70 and over – but nowadays there are more people aged 70+ than those in single figures.
  • The overall population of Northern Ireland grew by around 25% from 1971 to 2023 but the under 10 population FELL by approximately 27% in the same period.
  • Three decades ago, the median age in NI was 32.0 years. The latest figures indicate it is now 40.2 years, a rise of over eight years since the mid 1990s.
  • In 1999, children made up 24.3% of the total population – compared to 20.0% according to the most recent data.
  • Over the same period, the percentage of the population that is 65 and over grew from 13.1% to 18.1%.
  • These changes are broadly similar to other countries and nations with developed economies. Great Britain has seen similar patterns, as has Ireland – despite the fact its overall population has grown by a much bigger proportion (over 80% growth compared with 25%) than NI’s since the early 1970s.

For a much more in-depth analysis, read on.

  • Ageing over time

Northern Ireland’s population is ageing. This means that, over time, the proportion of older people is rising and the proportion of younger people is shrinking.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publishes reports annually on the mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland.

The chart below, using the latest data from NISRA, shows the population proportion of Northern Ireland in ten-year age bands (with everyone 70 and over classed as one category). It illustrates this change over the past 50 years or so:

Figure 1 – source: NISRA

Despite the total population of Northern Ireland growing by 25% from 1971 to 2024, the under 10 population has fallen by 28% in absolute terms.

Figure 2 – source: NISRA

In 1971, there were three times as many children aged under 10 as there were people aged 70 and over. By 2024, the 70+ population (247k) was larger than the under 10 population (230k).

  • Changes in the most recent year

The latest mid year population estimates were published last week, and lay out estimates for population ages at 30 June 2024:

  • In the year to mid-2024, the number of people aged 65 and over increased by 2.0%, from 342,500 to 349,200.
  • The proportion of the population aged 65+ grew from 13.1% in 1999 to 18.1% in 2024.
  • By contrast, the proportion aged 0-15 decreased from 24.3% down to 20.0% in the same period.

Figure 3 – source: NISRA

NISRA’s latest report also shows how the number of children (those aged 0-15, inclusive) decreased by 3,500 between mid 2023 and mid 2024.

In 2023, there were an estimated 388,200 children in Northern Ireland – but this fell to approximately 384,700 over the year. Throughout the year, there were an estimated 19,800 births and a net migration of 2,800 to add to this population – but these were more than offset by 26,000 children “ageing out” (reaching their 16th birthday) and around 100 deaths.

Over the same period:

  • The younger working age population (age 16-39) is estimated to have increased by 0.6% from 567,800 people to 571,200 people. This is because more people aged into (26,000) this population than aged out (25,600), a net migration of 3,500, and a total of 400 deaths – resulting in a 3,400 increase in total.
  • The older working age population (40-64) grew by 0.1%, from 621,900 to 622,800. More people aged in (25,600) than aged out (22,100), net migration was 100, and there were 2,500 deaths – meaning a rise of 900 overall.
  • Older population growth in a single year

The same factors are at play when it comes to looking at the changes in older populations between mid 2023 and mid 2024.

Over this time, the number of people aged 65 and over increased by 2.0%, from 342,500 to 349,200. This increase of 6,700 was down to:

Figure 4 – source: NISRA

The total population aged 85 and over also grew – up 2.4%, from 41,900 to 42,900. This increase of 1,000 stemmed from:

Figure 5 – source: NISRA

According to the latest official data on the age profile of NI, the current median age of people in NI is 40.3 years. The median has risen by over eight years in the past three decades – in mid 2024 it was 32.0 years.

Altogether these changes show how the age profile of the NI population has shifted over the past year, as well as describing how these demographic changes occur in general.

Total populations change via births, deaths and net migration. The age profile of a population is also adjusted by these things – as well as the natural ageing-out process whereby individuals move from one age band into another.

  • Northern Ireland in context

Northern Ireland’s population in 1971 was 1,540,413, while NISRA’s estimate for mid 2024 puts it at 1,927,855. This represents growth of 387,442 – or 25.2% – over those 53 years.

The Republic of Ireland has seen significantly higher population growth in recent decades, with a rise of over 80% since 1971. Regardless, a similar pattern of a proportionately ageing population can be seen south of the border.

Data published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows steady growth in the relative size of older ten-year age bands:

Figure 5 – source: CSO

Despite its population growing so much more rapidly than NI’s since the start of the 1970s, the total number of under 10s in Ireland in 1971 (approximately 633,000) was higher than the estimated number of under 10s according to the most recent figures (629,000).

Great Britain has seen similar shifts. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the following shifts in ten-year age bands:

Figure 6 – source: ONS

Further afield, these patterns are broadly replicated across developed economies over recent decades. Figures published by Our World in Data, shows various breakdowns in populations of different nations and regions over time, including by age band.

The following chart shows the total percentage share of the population aged 14 or younger in the UK, Ireland, Italy (where the increase in population age has been particularly high) and across all high-income countries, as well as NISRA data for Northern Ireland.

Figure 7 – sources: Our World in Data and NISRA

At the other end of the spectrum, below is a similar graph this time mapping out the percentage of the total population that is aged 65 or older.

Figure 8 – sources: Our World in Data and NISRA

Both these graphs show how the shift in balance of Northern Ireland’s population has followed similar trends in many other similar countries.

  • Why is this important?

An ageing population changes a country in many ways. This article will not go into any of these in great detail, but it might help to mention a couple of policy areas where the shift towards an older population is already making impacts on people’s lives – with these impacts set to grow in coming years and decades.

The ongoing reconfiguration of Northern Ireland’s Health and Social Care system stem directly from the effects of population ageing.

Various official studies, such as 2011’s Transforming Your Care, the Donaldson report in 2014, and 2016’s Bengoa report were all research papers commissioned by the government in Northern Ireland.

All say similar things, all reflect on the need to change health structures in response to our ageing population – points that remain the centre of health policy now amid efforts to meet the health and social care needs of the population while that population continues to age.

Pensions are another area impacted by population age. The Institute for Fiscal Studies carried out a broad-ranging project, The Pensions Review, that was published in July. The think tank’s research stated that:

“The ageing population will add considerable pressure on public finances in coming decades. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), under current population projections and government policy … spending on the state pension, pension credit and winter fuel payment is expected to rise by 1.2% of national income (£32 billion per year in today’s terms) by 2050. One key driver of this is that there are expected to be 25% more pensioners in 2050 than today … The pressures due to health and social care are much bigger, with spending projected to rise by 4.1% of national income (£105 billion per year in today’s terms) over the same period.”

Similar points were made in the final recommendations for the review, again highlighting how an ageing population is expected to significantly increase pressures on public finances through both pensions and health and social care.

Current population growth in both NI and the wider UK is being propped up by net migration. The previous piece in our demographics series looked at the places of birth of people living in Northern Ireland and showed how, in the decades 2001-11 and 2011-21, the number of people born here was significantly larger than the increase in net migration – but that migration has been required to ensure a significant rise in population.

Some analyses have suggested that immigration can ease some of the UK’s fiscal pressures (see here and here) as well as providing staff across health and social care (see here, here and here) but the long-term impacts could be more complicated and dealing with an ageing population in the short term does not necessarily prevent all the same issues appearing further down the line.

  • Next up

The third and final piece in our series of the demographics of Northern Ireland will look at religion. Keep an eye out – it is likely to be published in the coming weeks.