Child poverty in NI: Have child poverty levels declined significantly?

• Poverty is measured in different ways, including absolute poverty and relative poverty, both of which can be calculated before and after housing costs.
• The latest official figures for 2024-25 say 16% of NI children were living in relative poverty after housing costs, down from 21% in 2023-24.
• The methodology for working out local child poverty rates changed in 2024-25. However, the figures for recent years were recalculated using the new method making comparisons valid.
• Child poverty levels are lower in Northern Ireland than they are in the other UK nations.
• Overall child poverty levels may have dropped, but there has not been the same shift in the number of children living in deeper levels of poverty: the most deprived children have not seen similar improvements to those closer to the poverty line.

During a 26 May debate on local government and the Anti-poverty Strategy, Communities Minister Gordon Lyons said: 

“We are not complacent about poverty levels, but it is worth noting that there has been a statistically significant decrease in child poverty from 21% to 16%. It is still too high, but it shows some of the progress that has been made.”

In response, Sinn Féin MLA Cathy Mason noted: 

“I appreciate the figures that the Minister has mentioned, but we need to explore them further because there was a concern that the criteria had changed when they were being calculated. I appreciate the figures, but it is something that we need to look at.”

Have child poverty levels dropped significantly? If so, is this down to a change in criteria for how these statistics are calculated?

Noting that Ms Mason’s comments are not really a firm counterclaim so much as they are raising a query, there are three things to look at here:

1. Has there been a statistically significant decrease in child poverty from 21% to 16%?
2. Has there been a change in criteria around child poverty?
3. If so in both cases, is the drop in poverty levels a result of a shift in statistical parameters or is it more substantial?

There are various ways to calculate child poverty. The latest official data indicates that 16% of children in NI were in relative poverty after housing costs in 2024-25. The previous year this figure was 21%.

It is correct that the methodology for calculating poverty has changed this year. This means that, broadly speaking, comparisons with previous years’ data are not valid.

However, revised figures using the new methodology have been recalculated each year from 2021-22. The Minister’s claim uses those revised statistics and is therefore sound.

For more information, read on.

• Sources

FactCheckNI contacted both Mr Lyons and Ms Mason about this conversation. At the time of writing, we had received no response from the Minister.

Ms Mason responded to say that Mr Lyons had on 14 May suggested to the Committee for Communities that some poverty figures were trending in the right direction but that it had been brought to her attention later that such changes might be down to changes in criteria.

During that committee meeting, Mr Lyons said:

“There have actually been positive indications in the poverty statistics; the most recent ones were going in the right direction. Although there is no room for complacency, it highlights that we are already taking many positive actions.”

Again, the issues raised by Ms Mason are not a specific claim but instead more of a query for clarification.

• Official figures

The latest annual data on poverty in Northern Ireland was published on 26 March. The Northern Ireland Poverty And Income Inequality Report 2024-25 states:

“In 2024-25 the percentage of children in absolute poverty (BHC) decreased to 15% (approximately 67,000), from 21% in 2023-24. This is a statistically significant change.”

At first glance, these figures appear to support what the Minister says. The numbers themselves are slightly different – suggesting a drop from 21% to 15% rather than the 16% mentioned by the Minister – but this minor discrepancy only seems to strengthen the point being made.

However, the figures relate to absolute poverty as calculated before housing costs (BHC).

Before we take a closer look at any changes in criteria – and whether they affect the validity of this statistical comparison – it’s worth laying out some of the different types of poverty that are typically measured and tracked over time.

• Types of poverty and how they are calculated

The two main framings of poverty are absolute poverty and relative poverty.

An individual is considered to be in absolute poverty if they are living in a household with an equivalised income below 60% of the (inflation adjusted) UK median income in 2024-25, which is known as the reference year. Before 2024-25, the reference year was 2010-11.

“Equivalised” means that income is adjusted according to the size of the household, in accordance with the methodology published by the Department for Work & Pensions:

Figure 1 – source: DfC/NISRA

An individual is considered to be in relative poverty if they are living in a household with an equivalised income below 60% of the UK median income in a given year. Income includes contributions from earnings, benefits, pensions, and other sources of income; it is net of taxes. 

In a Northern Ireland context, it is important to note that the poverty threshold of 60% of median equivalised household income is calculated based on the overall UK median, and not the threshold in Northern Ireland.

Note that as 2024-25 is the new reference year (and the year against which the calculation of absolute poverty will be compared in future years), absolute poverty and relative poverty levels are exactly the same in 2024-25.

Both absolute and relative poverty can be calculated either before housing costs (BHC) or after housing costs (AHC).

BHC calculations simply take no account of housing costs. AHC deducts a measure of housing costs from total income. These costs can include rent (including housing benefit), mortgage payments, structural insurance premiums (for owner-occupiers) and any ground rent or service charges.

• Methodology

There has indeed been a recent change in the way different types of poverty are calculated.

Poverty statistics in Northern Ireland and across the UK are based on the Family Resources Survey published by the Department for Work and Pensions. The survey has been the main source of data for household income and poverty measurement for Great Britain since 1994-95 and NI since 2002-03.

The Department for Communities published information on the impact of the methodological change in March 2026. As additional information on benefit receipts are now being used to derive income levels, the overall effect of the change in methodology is a reduction in reported poverty levels.

However, while there was a significant methodological change in the way that poverty is measured from 2024-25 that makes comparisons with general historical data impossible, that does not mean that no comparisons are available. 

• Revisions

The figures from 2021-22 onwards have been restated using the new methodology, and therefore the drop in NI absolute child poverty rates before housing costs (BHC) are not attributable to the methodology change.

Let’s take a closer look at some statistics. Throughout this analysis, figures have been rounded to the nearest percentage point.

• Back to the data

As is noted above, the latest annual report on poverty in NI states that “In 2024-25 the percentage of children in absolute poverty (BHC) decreased to 15% (approximately 67,000), from 21% in 2023-24. This is a statistically significant change.”

We also noted that the Communities Minister, in his original claim, said the drop was from 21% to 16%. However, Mr Lyons did not specify which measure of poverty he was using. Let’s take a look at some other comparisons.

The following table looks at child poverty figures in Northern Ireland in the years since 2021-22. Although the new methodology described above only came into being for 2024-25, all the other years use revised figures calculated with the latest methods – which allows proper comparison across these years (although not with more historic periods where data is only available using the older method ).

Figure 2 – source: DfC/NISRA

Across all measures, poverty levels rose between 2021-22 before falling between 2023-24 and 2024-25.

In particular, relative poverty after housing costs fell from 21% in 2023-24 to 16% in 2024-25 – which matches precisely what the Minister said in his contribution to the Assembly and, while there have been changes in methodology that will obviously impact poverty statistics in general, these do not affect this comparison because the two datapoints have been calculated the same way.

That’s the end of the fact check – but it’s worth taking a quick look at some of the broader child poverty figures found in the recent annual statistics.

• NI within the UK

Across both measures (before and after housing costs), child poverty levels in Northern Ireland are the lowest of the four countries of the UK.

As 2024/25 is the new reference year, absolute and relative poverty levels for the year are identical for this year.

Data for all the charts below was sourced from Stat-Xplore published by the Department for Work & Pensions:

Figure 3 – source: DWP

This chart covers relative poverty after housing costs but similar results are seen before housing costs or with absolute poverty (both BHC and AHC) – although it should be borne in mind that the Department for Communities report notes that while the AHC measure is directly comparable between NI and UK, BHC analysis is not. This is due to the difference in the way water charges are collected.

• Children in Low Income and Material Deprivation

As well as the 60% of median equivalised household income measure, a new metric for child poverty was introduced by the DWP in 2023/24, a measure of the percentage of children in low income and material deprivation households.

From 2023/24 a child is considered to be in low income and material deprivation if they live in a family that lacks four or more of the material deprivation goods or services, and has an equivalised household income (BHC) below 70% of the UK median.

The list of material goods or services is published by the DWP, and includes items such as enough bedrooms, age suitable toys/games, and enough clothes.

In Northern Ireland, 9% of the child population were classed as being in poverty in this measure. As with other measures, this is the lowest of the UK countries, but on this measure there has not been a significant decline from 2023/24 to 2024/25.

Figure 4 – source: DWP

• Severe poverty

Whilst the standard definition of poverty levels looks at households with equivalised income below 60% of the median, the more severe definition (below 50% of the median) has not seen the dramatic decline between 2023/24 and 2024/25.

This suggests that the percentage of children living in severe poverty has not declined to the same extent.

Figure 5 – source: DWP

• Housing costs and incomes

AHC poverty levels are driven by both household incomes and housing costs, and Northern Ireland has the most favourable housing costs to income ratios in the UK.

Median housing costs in Northern Ireland are the lowest of the UK countries and English regions, whilst median equivalised incomes are higher than all the English regions except for London and the East and Southeast of England.